What is Algeria's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Algeria

Economy wide

Provided that it receives adequate international support, Algeria has committed to reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 22% by 2030. This “conditional” target translates into an emissions level that ranges from 3% below to 25% above 2015 levels or around 244–315 MtCO₂e by 2030 excluding LULUCF.1,2,3

Algeria's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

  • Graph description

    The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

    Methodology

    Data References

2030 NDC

Algeria has not submitted an updated climate pledge since the 2015 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). In the NDC, the country commits to an unconditional target of reducing emissions by 7% relative to business-as-usual (BAU) emission levels by 2030.4 The unconditional target translates into an emissions increase of 16–39% above 2015 levels or around 291–351 MtCO₂e by 2030, excluding LULUCF.

Long-term strategy

Algeria has not adopted a long-term strategy nor a net zero target.

2050 ambition

Our analysis shows that to get on a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Algeria should reduce emissions by 42–52% below 2015 levels by 2030 which equals 122–147 MtCO₂e/yr, excluding LULUCF.

Remaining emissions

Algeria’s economy is heavily reliant on fossil fuel exports and thus vulnerable to price volatility. A more diverse economic base that builds on renewable energy would be more resilient and sustainable. It could be strengthened by transitioning away from the fossil fuel industry and diversifying its economy reducing its reliance on fossil fuel exports.

Sectors

Power

  • Algeria aims to increase the share of renewable energy in the country’s electricity mix to 40% by 2030.5

  • 1.5°C compatible pathways show that the power sector’s carbon intensity would need to decline sharply from 480 gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to 180–260 gCO₂/kWh by 2030. The sector could be fully decarbonised by around 2040.

  • The decarbonisation would be driven by a rapid and strong uptake of renewable energy, reaching 92–96% of the power mix by 2040, and a phase-out of fossil gas by 2040. The country’s power sector relies fully on fossil gas (100% in 2019). Having a more diverse power mix would make the country and its power sector more resilient and sustainable.

Buildings

  • In 2019, about 46% of the total energy consumption in Algeria was consumed in the buildings sector.6

  • To be in line with 1.5°C compatible pathways, the sector should halve its emissions by 2030 and be fully decarbonised in the 2040s.

  • According to the pathways assessed here, the emissions reductions would be driven by electrification that increases from 19% in 2019 in total energy demand to 43–51% by 2030 and 90–91% by 2050.

Industry

  • Energy-related emissions of Algeria’s industrial sector increased by 32% between 1990 and 2019, while emissions intensity decreased by about 57%. The biggest emitters are the fossil fuel and agri-food industries.

  • To be in line with the 1.5°C compatible pathways assessed here, carbon emissions from the industrial energy use would need to fall by 73–79% from 2019 levels by 2030 and be close to zero in the early 2040s.

  • The emissions reductions could be driven by electrification which would increase from 25% in 2019 to 40–42% by 2030 and 77–83% by 2050

Transport

  • Emissions from the transport sector in Algeria grew from 16 MtCO₂e in 1990 to 46 MtCO₂e in 2019, a dramatic 189% increase.

  • To be in line with 1.5°C compatible pathways, the emissions of energy demand in the sector would need to decline to around 17–20 MtCO₂e in 2030, and between 0–7 MtCO₂e in 2050. The emissions reductions would be mostly driven by electrification which would increase from 1% in 2019 to 9–59% in 2030, and 55–95% in 2050, depending on the pathway.

  • The Algerian government is committed to promoting Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and fossil-gas-based fuels in the transport sector. This is not in line with 1.5°C compatible pathways which require a full phase-out of fossil fuels from the country’s energy mix.

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