What is Algeria's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

Raising 2030 ambition

Algeria’s NDC sets an unconditional target of reducing GHG emissions by 7% by 2030 compared to business-as-usual (BAU) levels.1 This translates into an increase in emissions of 16–39% above 2015 levels or around 291–351 MtCO₂e by 2030, excluding LULUCF.2,3 Provided that it receives adequate international support, Algeria is committed to reducing its GHG emissions by 22% by 2030 below BAU.4 This translates into an emissions level that ranges between a 3% reduction and 25% increase compared to 2015 levels, excluding LULUCF.5,6 To be in line with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Algeria would need to reduce emissions by 42–52% below 2015 levels by 2030, equalling to an emissions level of 122–147 MtCO₂e/yr.

Algeria's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

  • Graph description

    The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

    Methodology

    Data References

Long term pathway

As of January 2022, Algeria has not communicated a net zero target nor submitted a Long-Term Emissions Strategy to the UNFCCC. To be aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Algeria’s GHG emissions would need to decline to 35–44 MtCO₂e/yr or 82–86% below 2015 levels by 2050. Achieving these goals would require stringent and ambitious policies, especially in the industry sector. Algeria’s economy is heavily reliant on fossil fuels exports. Moving away from fossil fuel industry and diversifying the economy would help the country achieve its climate goals and build a stronger and more sustainable economy.

Algeria's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Scaling

Energy system transformation

The main sources of GHG emissions in Algeria are fuel combustion in the energy sector (industry, buildings, and transport) and fugitive emissions from the extraction of oil and gas.7 The power sector transformation will be key to the energy sector decarbonisation, as well as transitioning away from the fossil fuel industry and the power sector are key in the decarbonisation of the energy sector of the country. Algeria’s total primary energy supply relied 100% on fossil fuels in 2020 with fossil gas having a share of 65% and oil 35%. To reduce emissions, Algeria will need to considerably scale up its renewable energy supply and transform its economy that is currently heavily based on fossil fuel exports. Our analysis of 1.5°C compatible pathways shows that the share of fossil fuels in primary energy could be halved by 2040 and cut by close to a third by 2050. In its Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Development Plan (REEEDP) Algeria aims to improve energy efficiency. However, the country will need stronger measures to embark on a 1.5°C compatible transition pathway.8,9
In mid-2022 the government launched a tender for 1 GW of solar PV capacity.10 This would help Algeria transform its energy system to a more resilient and sustainable one. However, the country is still investing in fossil fuels and in 2011 the country started building hybrid gas and solar power stations (installation of hybrid power stations located at Hassi R’Mel).11 This is not consistent with the Paris agreement, as it will still allow for use of fossil fuels when these should be completely phased out.

Algeria's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Algeria. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

Indicator
2015
Reference year
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
253
272
127
122 to 147
64
55 to 72
37
35 to 44
Relative to reference year in %
-50%
-52 to -42%
-75%
-78 to -71%
-85%
-86 to -82%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
168
184
100
78 to 105
34
16 to 48
11
4 to 27
2068
Relative to reference year in %
-40%
-54 to -37%
-80%
-90 to -72%
-94%
-97 to -84%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

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