What is Algeria's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
Raising ambition
According to its NDC, Algeria intends to cut emissions by 7% below business-as-usual unconditionally, and by 22% conditional on international support.1 This translates into emissions of 4% below to 24% above 2015 levels for the conditional target, and 15-38% above 2015 levels for the unconditional target when excluding LULUCF.
To be 1.5°C compatible, Algeria’s 2030 emissions would need to drop to 173 MtCO2e or 32% below 2015 levels (excl. LULUCF). As Algeria’s conditional NDC target would lead to emissions of 244 MtCO2e, Algeria’s 2030 ambition gap is therefore 71 MtCO2e.
It has been almost a decade since Algeria published its NDC. Submitting an updated, stronger target which is in line with 1.5°C would be an important step for the Algerian government to enhance ambition. Algeria will require international support to implement emissions reductions that are fully in line with a 1.5°C domestic emissions pathway, thus closing the gap between its fair share level and domestic emissions level.
Algeria's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Long term pathway
As of June 2024, Algeria has not communicated a long-term emissions reduction target, nor has it submitted a Long-Term Strategy to the UNFCCC. To be aligned with 1.5°C, Algeria’s GHG emissions would need to fall to 44 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 (excl. LULUCF). This equates to 83% below 2015 levels.
Given that energy-related emissions account for 82% of economy-wide emissions, decarbonising energy use will be pivotal to meeting Algeria’s Paris Agreement obligations. This will entail supporting the development of renewables in power, reducing Algeria’s high share of fugitive emissions, and supporting the electrification of transport and industry.
Algeria's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Algeria. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2015
Reference year
|
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
254
|
265
|
136 to
185
|
102 to
129
|
69 to
105
|
31 to
47
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-46 to
-27%
|
-60 to
-49%
|
-73 to
-59%
|
-88 to
-81%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
154
|
164
|
95 to
124
|
70 to
102
|
44 to
66
|
5 to
22
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-38 to
-19%
|
-55 to
-34%
|
-71 to
-57%
|
-97 to
-86%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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