What is Algeria's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
Raising ambition
According to its 2015 NDC, Algeria intends to cut emissions by 7% below business-as-usual levels (unconditional) and by 22% conditional on international support.1 This translates into emissions of 1% below to 82% above 2015 levels for the conditional target, and 18-82% above 2015 levels for the unconditional target (excluding LULUCF).
To be 1.5°C compatible, Algeria’s 2030 emissions would need to drop to 18% below 2015 levels, both when excluding and including LULUCF emissions.
A 1.5°C aligned 2035 target would aim to cut emissions by 39% below 2015 levels both excluding and including LULUCF.
A decade since it published its NDC, Algeria is expected to submit an updated NDC in 2025 with a stronger 2030 target as well as a 1.5°C compatible 2035 target. To fully achieve a 1.5°C compatible emissions pathway, Algeria would require significant levels of international support.
Algeria's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
-
Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
-
Long term pathway
As of May 2025, Algeria has not communicated a long-term emissions reduction target, nor has it submitted a long term strategy to the UNFCCC. To be aligned with 1.5°C, Algeria’s GHG emissions would need to fall to 55 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 (excl. LULUCF). This equates to 73% below 2015 levels.
Given that energy-related emissions account for 80% of economy-wide emissions, decarbonising energy use will be pivotal to meeting Algeria’s Paris Agreement obligations. This will entail supporting the development of renewable energy capacity in power, reducing Algeria’s high share of fugitive emissions, and supporting the electrification of transport and industry.
Algeria's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
-
Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
-
1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Algeria. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2015
Reference year
|
2023
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
208
|
235
|
130 to
170
|
100 to
127
|
69 to
98
|
38 to
55
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-38 to
-18%
|
-52 to
-39%
|
-67 to
-53%
|
-82 to
-74%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
135
|
154
|
83 to
111
|
45 to
93
|
8 to
61
|
-9 to
16
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-39 to
-18%
|
-67 to
-31%
|
-94 to
-55%
|
-107 to
-88%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
-
Methodology
Data References
-