What is Senegal's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
Raising ambition
Senegal’s 2020 conditional NDC1 target aims to cut GHG emissions by 29.5% below a business-as-usual scenario by 2030. This translates to a 14-46% emissions increase above 2010 levels, or around 28-36 MtCO2e/yr, excluding LULUCF in 2030. To be 1.5°C compatible, Senegal’s emissions growth should be limited to no more than 22% above 2010 levels by 2030, equivalent to 30 MtCO2e/yr in 2030 (excluding LULUCF). The lower end of Senegal’s NDC is therefore broadly compatible with 1.5°C, yet a carbon-intensive emissions trajectory driven by fossil fuel exploitation could still risk incompatibility with the Paris Agreement.
Key policy gaps preventing Senegal from getting on a 1.5oC compatible emissions pathway stem from plans to expand new oil and gas production2 and limited ambition in planned non-biomass renewable energy development, among others.3,4
Senegal would require international financial support to achieve its climate ambitions.5
Senegal's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
-
Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
-
Senegal's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
-
Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
-
1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Senegal. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2010
Reference year
|
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
25
|
33
|
17 to
30
|
14 to
31
|
12 to
30
|
10 to
25
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-32 to
20%
|
-44 to
24%
|
-52 to
20%
|
-60 to
0%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
6
|
11
|
3 to
5
|
2 to
4
|
0 to
4
|
-2 to
2
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-50 to
-17%
|
-67 to
-33%
|
-100 to
-33%
|
-133 to
-67%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
-
Methodology
Data References
-