What is Senegal's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
Raising ambition
Senegal’s most recent NDC (submitted in 2020) outlines a 2030 emissions target of a 7% unconditional reduction compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. With international support (i.e. the conditional target) this reduction could reach 29.5% relative to the BAU. Reflecting the relatively low emissions of this developing country in 2010 and space to develop, the NDC targets would lead to emissions of 37.8 MtCO2e (unconditional target) and 28.7 MtCO2e (conditional) by 2030.1
For comparability with our 1.5°C pathways, we assess Senegal’s 2030 target as an increase of 29-38 MtCO2e from 2010 levels for total GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF). The conditional NDC target (29 MtCO2e) falls just short of the top of the 1.5°C compatible range (14-26 MtCO2e) indicating a very small ambition gap of ~2 MtCO2e by 2030. For 2035, a 1.5°C compatible pathway is within a wide range; between an increase of 26 MtCO2e and a reduction of 12 MtCO2e compared to 2010.
Key policy gaps preventing Senegal from aligning with a 1.5°C compatible emissions pathway stem from plans to expand new oil and gas production for domestic use and limited non-biomass renewable energy development.2,3,4
Senegal would require international financial support to achieve its climate targets.5
Senegal's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
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Long term pathway
Senegal was expected to release a long term strategy at COP28 in 2023, but no announcement was made.6,7 A 1.5°C compatible pathway range would require Senegal’s GHG emissions levels (excl. LULUCF) to be between 21 and 8 MtCO2e/yr by 2050, or between an increase of 28% above and a reduction of 49% from 2010 levels
Senegal's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Senegal. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2010
Reference year
|
2023
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
17
|
28
|
15 to
26
|
12 to
26
|
10 to
25
|
8 to
21
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-12 to
53%
|
-29 to
53%
|
-41 to
47%
|
-53 to
24%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
4
|
8
|
2 to
4
|
1 to
3
|
0 to
3
|
-2 to
1
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-50 to
0%
|
-75 to
-25%
|
-100 to
-25%
|
-150 to
-75%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
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Methodology
Data References
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