What is Chile's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Chile’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are dominated by power and heating, which accounted for 32% of total GHG emissions in 2016, followed by transport at 24%. Total GHG emissions increased by 22% between 2010–2016.1 As Chile’s power sector is responsible for the largest share of total emissions, it remains the main policy focus for the implementation and compliance of the country’s NDC.
The forestry sector has been an important carbon sink for the past two decades, absorbing on average –62 MtCO₂/year between 2006 and 2016. However, the sector saw a significant increase in emissions in 2018 due to large forest fires.2
Chile's current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Last available LULUCF data point: -65.6976 Mt CO2eq (2016)
Data References
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Energy system
Chile’s energy mix is dominated by oil, accounting for roughly 42% of its total energy supply in 2019.3 Meanwhile, in the power sector, coal and gas account for 37% and 19% of generation, respectively. Phasing out fossil fuels within the power sector will be the most important driver of decarbonisation, together with shifting away from the use of oil in the transport sector.
Chile imports coal and fossil gas, mostly from Colombia and Argentina.4 In mid-2019, the government announced its plans to close eight (out of 28) older coal power plants by 2024, and the rest by 2040.5,6,7 The government updated its national energy policy in 2022 with a vision to 2050. The plan contains a roadmap for the energy transition with targets to increase the share of renewables in electricity generation to 80% by 2030 and 100% by 2050, from around 47% renewable share in 2019.8,9
In recent years, solar and wind power generation has increased. In 2020, generation from non-conventional renewable sources (primarily solar and wind) reached a 25% share of total electricity generation.10
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
Fixed level target
NDC target
Unconditional NDC target:
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Absolute emissions limit of 95 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).11
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Peak emissions by 2025.
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Emissions budget of 1100 MtCO₂e between 2020 and 2030.
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14% below 2016 by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).
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Conditional NDC target:*
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Up to 45% below 2016 levels by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).12
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90 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).13
Market mechanisms
- Chile does not exclude the use of market mechanisms, formally recognising Article 6 in its NDC.
Long-term target
- Net zero GHG including LULUCF by 2050.14
- Reduce total black carbon emissions by at least 25% by 2030 below 2016 levels.15
Sectoral targets
Energy
- 60% target for energy sector emission reductions by 2050.
Power
- Share of renewables in electricity generation to reach 80% by 2030, and 100% by 2050.16
- Coal phase-out by 2040 (5.5 GW by 2040).
Transport
- Reduce 40% of transport sector GHG emissions from fossil fuels by 2050.17
- 40% share of EVs in private light duty vehicles by 2050.18
- 100% share of EVs in public urban transport by 2050.19
Buildings
- 100% of new buildings are net zero energy consuming by 2030 and built using sustainable national standards.
- 100% of all buildings residential and non-residential are zero net energy consumption.
LULUCF
- Reducing emissions from land use and land degradation by 25% by 2030 compared to the average between 2001 and 2013.20