What is Chile's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Decarbonising the transport sector
Transport is the largest emitting sector in Chile, responsible for 27% of total emissions in 2022. Nearly all of the sector’s total final energy consumption is oil products, with electricity accounting for only 1% of total final consumption in 2022.1 In the Deep Electrification pathway, which captures the potential for rapid electrification to push fossil fuels out of the energy system, electricity grows to 25% of the energy mix in transport by 2030 and to nearly 90% by mid-century. Chile is already a global leader in the electrification of public transport. Robust EV sales growth supported by clear policy targets including zero emissions vehicles accounting for 100% of new sales by 2035 and a high and growing share of renewables in the energy system put Chile in a good position to accelerate decarbonisation in the transport sector.2
Chile's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The Minimal CDR reliance pathway also sees strong growth in electricity in transportation, reaching just under 10% in 2030 and 68% by 2050, complemented with growth in biofuels, which account for 30% of the 2050 energy mix. While biofuels present a less carbon-intensive alternative to oil, any biomass used must be sustainably sourced, avoiding emissions from land-use change, competition with food crops, and negative impacts on biodiversity and indigenous communities.
In order to align with the 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here, Chile’s transport sector can be decarbonised around 2050 through a rapid scale up of electrification, biofuels, and hydrogen while fossil fuels are pushed out of the energy mix. Any remaining oil consumption in 2050 would likely be concentrated in long-distance transport such as aviation and shipping. It could further be reduced by the introduction of synthetic fuels, which are not captured in these pathways.
Chile's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Chile
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Transport sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
31
|
22 to
31
|
15 to
30
|
9 to
27
|
0 to
17
|
2049 to
2052
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-29 to
0%
|
-52 to
-3%
|
-71 to
-13%
|
-100 to
-45%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
1
|
6 to
25
|
12 to
53
|
22 to
74
|
50 to
88
|
|
Share of biofuels
%
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
2
|
2 to
31
|
|
Share of hydrogen
%
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
1
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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