What is Chile's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
Chile’s power sector would need to be the first sector to reach zero emissions between 2030–2038. This will be possible through a strong uptake of renewable energy (including variable renewables, hydro and biomass) to reach a share of between 87–99% by 2030 and 100% by 2040. Chile’s National Energy Policy sets targets to reach renewables share of 80% by 2030 and 100% by 2050_.1 These targets will need to be strengthened accordingly to be aligned with a 1.5°C pathway.
A lower penetration of renewable energy will lead to a higher need for CDR technologies such as Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), Direct Air Carbon Capture (DACCS) or others, to compensate for emissions from remaining fossil fuels.
Chile's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
-
Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
-
Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
In 2019, coal made up roughly 37% and fossil gas 19% of Chile’s total power generation.2
The full decarbonisation of Chile’s power sector in line with the 1.5°C goal requires coal to be phased out by around 2025 and fossil gas by 2031-35.
However, Chile has only committed to phasing out two thirds of its coal fired power stations by 2025, with a full phase-out date set for 2040.3 In its 2050 Energy Strategy, the government still plans to rely on liquified natural gas (LNG) in 2050, far too late when compared to a 1.5°C aligned gas phase-out date.4
On an ambitious step is Chile’s green hydrogen strategy, which aims to position Chile as the world’s cheapest supplier of green hydrogen by 2030.5
Chile's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
-
Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
-
Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Chile to be on the order of USD 2 to 8 billion by 2030 and 4 to 14 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors and growing energy demand. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments and renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Chile's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
-
Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
-
1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Chile
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
442
|
4 to
89
|
-22 to
0
|
-64 to
-29
|
2030 to
2038
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-99 to
-80%
|
-105 to
-100%
|
-114 to
-107%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
33
|
0 to
3
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
19
|
1 to
3
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
2031 to
2035
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
47
|
87 to
99
|
100 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
53
|
1 to
13
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
-
Methodology
Data References
-