What is Chile's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Decarbonising the power sector
Chile’s power sector emissions have trended downwards since their all-time high of 38 MtCO₂/yr in 2019, reaching roughly 29 MtCO₂/yr in 2022. With the overall share of renewables (including biomass) at 55% in 2022, Chile is well positioned to achieve the emissions cuts seen in the analysed 1.5°C emissions pathways. Across all analysed pathways, unabated coal and fossil gas are both phased out by 2035, with renewable energy accounting for 98-100% of Chile’s power generation.
Chile's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.
Methodology
Data References
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In the Deep Electrification pathway, which best captures the rapid cost reductions seen in wind and solar over the past decade and the potential for future progress, renewables account for 96% of generation by 2030. The Deep Electrification pathway shows the largest growth in hydrogen, reaching 3% of the power mix by mid-century. Hydrogen can be produced by wind and solar in periods of excess generation, stored, and then used in periods of low generation to balance supply and demand.
The Net-Zero Commitments pathway, which assumes some of the major net zero commitments announced by major economies are met, sees similarly strong growth in renewables (including biomass) through 2030. Power sector decarbonisation is achieved before 2035 in part through the highest deployment of negative emissions technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) out of all the illustrative pathways, reaching 8% by 2050. While we analyse pathways that rely on negative emissions technologies, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are expensive and unproven at scale and over-reliance on CDR can be risky.
Chile's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Power capacity investments
Chile is a leading investment destination for renewable energies in Latin America. Investments reached a record USD 5.7bn in 2024, growing over 200%.1 Chile’s regulatory and political environment has long supported its domestic renewable energy industry through financial incentives and clear long-term planning, which provides security to investors. However, a certain level of regulatory uncertainty has entered the system because of a proposed policy which would remove a stabilised pricing mechanism for small generators that has attracted billions of dollars of investment.2 Both large investors and small power generators argue this could create a chilling effect by weakening incentives and threaten the financial viability of projects present and future.
Across the Deep Electrification and Minimal CDR Reliance pathways, solar sees the largest initial investment, with investments in wind ramping up between 2041-2050. In all analysed illustrative pathways, the decade between 2031-2040 is critical for investment in solar, which is projected to account for 38-56% of total investment in renewable electricity capacity.
In the Deep Electrification pathway, annual investment in wind and solar capacity between 2026-2030 is projected to be roughly USD 4 bn. Chile has already exceeded this with USD 5.7bn in annual investment in 2024 and maintaining this record-setting pace will allow for even faster expansion of renewable capacity than projected under 1.5ºC compatible pathways.
Chile's renewable electricity investments and capacities
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Average annual investments in power sector renewable electricity capacity and cumulative installed power capacities across time under 1.5°C compatible pathways downscaled at country levels.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Chile
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Power sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
322
|
10 to
17
|
-22 to
0
|
-34 to
0
|
-42 to
0
|
2031 to
2034
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-97 to
-95%
|
-107 to
-100%
|
-111 to
-100%
|
-113 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
%
|
24
|
1 to
2
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
%
|
18
|
1 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of renewable energy
%
|
55
|
97 to
98
|
98 to
100
|
98 to
100
|
97 to
100
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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