What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Power

Decarbonising the power sector

China’s power sector remains dependent on coal, at 62% of its generation mix in 2022, despite the rapid growth in generation from renewables, which was 30% in the same year. In July 2025, China’s wind and solar capacity reached nearly 1.7 TW after meeting its 1.2 TW target six years ahead of schedule and has 1.3 TW planned solar and wind capacity.1 Fossil fuel generation capacity reached 1.4 TW as of July 2025. The share of coal in total capacity is only 40%, while its higher share in generation mix implies a higher utilisation rate of the existing capacities.

China's power mix

terawatt-hour per year

Scaling

  • Graph description

    Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.

    Methodology

    Data References

China’s 2022 power sector emissions reached 3.9 GtCO₂e. Under the Net Zero Commitments pathway (which assumes some of the major net zero commitments announced by major economies are met, including China’s 2060 carbon neutrality target), power sector CO₂ emissions would peak around 2025 at roughly 4.4 GtCO₂e before rapidly declining. In the first quarter of 2025, renewables led to a 2% year-on-year decline in China’s power sector’s CO₂ emissions and growth in solar power alone met the new electricity demand, leading to a 3.4% decline in coal use and a 3% CO₂ emissions reductions in the power sector. This is signalling a peak CO2 emissions could be imminent if China can keep this momentum continued. This would be in line with the Net Zero Commitments pathway’s 2025 peaking schedule.2

To align with the 1.5°C goal, renewables would comprise 77% of China’s power mix by 2030 – compared to 30% in 2022 – while coal is nearly phased out by 2040. While this requires substantial renewable capacity expansion to 4.8 TW by 2030, China has already seen significant renewables growth. This benchmark aligns with IEA forecasts for China where, under current policies, China is expected to reach 4.8 TW of installed renewable energy capacity by 2030.3

However, continued dependency on coal will undermine China’s renewable energy progress, especially after having endorsed its role in the energy system through the Energy Law (2024) and promoting clean coal utilisation.4 Although China has signalled its intention to “phase down coal consumption” during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026–2030) and is considering converting old coal plants to nuclear plants, more rapid coal phase-out actions would be required to be 1.5°C compatible.5

China's power sector emissions and carbon intensity

MtCO₂/yr

Unit

Power capacity investments

China’s clean energy investments (which were mainly directed towards solar and wind, energy storage and transmission grids) reached approximately USD 625 bn in 2024, amounting to 31% of the global total. Grid investments reached an all-time high, having grown by 25% reaching USD 85 bn in 2024 compared to 2019 levels.6 China added 223 GW of solar and 53.6 GW of wind capacity in the first half of 2025, contributing to a total 2.1 TW of renewable capacity (including solar, wind and hydro).7 In October 2025, industry leaders in China signed the Beijing Declaration 2.0 and pledged to annually add 120 GW wind capacity with 15 GW coming from offshore wind projects, aiming to add a total of 5 TW of wind power capacity by 2060.8

The Net Zero Commitments pathway would see a total 4.8 TW of renewable capacity built by 2030. This would require an average annual investment of USD 305 bn between 2026-2030 – primarily in solar and wind capacity. Further investments will be essential to address challenges related to grids and infrastructure.

Historically, substantial government subsidies (mainly from of feed-in tariff policies) have been driving China’s solar and wind capacity growth. These have been gradually phased out at the national level and replaced by the market-based pricing mechanism.9 The establishment of the national unified power market may promote renewable consumption and attract more future renewable investment.10

Internationally, China provides financial support through initiatives like South-South cooperation and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Lately, BRI finance has started to move away from supporting new coal projects abroad, moving instead towards “Small but Beautiful” projects, which include clean energy development projects that have lower financial risk but greater flexibility.11 China also expands its global clean-tech investments footprint, reaching 54 countries and pledging at least USD 227 billion (25% invested in solar manufacturing) between 2011 and the first half of 2025.12

China's renewable electricity investments and capacities

Billion USD / yr

Scaling

Dimension

  • Graph description

    Average annual investments in power sector renewable electricity capacity and cumulative installed power capacities across time under 1.5°C compatible pathways downscaled at country levels.

    Methodology

1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks

Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for China

Indicator
2022
2030
2035
2040
2050
Power sector decarbonised by
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
437
139 to 139
22 to 22
6 to 6
0 to 0
2042
Relative to reference year in %
-68 to -68%
-95 to -95%
-99 to -99%
-100 to -100%
Indicator
2022
2030
2035
2040
2050
Share of unabated coal
%
62
13 to 13
2 to 2
0 to 0
0 to 0
Share of unabated gas
%
3
3 to 3
2 to 2
1 to 1
0 to 0
Share of renewable energy
%
30
77 to 77
89 to 89
91 to 91
91 to 91

BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

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