What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Decarbonising the power sector
Although China’s power sector remains dependent on coal – which made up 63% of its electricity mix in 2021 – renewable capacity is rapidly expanding. In July 2024, China surpassed its 1200 GW wind and solar target six years early, reaching 1206 GW.1
China's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.
Methodology
Data References
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Under the Net Zero Commitments pathway (which assumes some of the major net zero commitments announced by major economies are met, including China’s 2060 carbon neutrality target), China's power sector CO₂ emissions would peak around 2025 at roughly 4.4 GtCO₂e before rapidly declining. With 2021 emissions from this sector at 4.7 GtCO₂e, an accelerated reduction is needed post-peak.
To align with the 1.5°C goal, renewables would comprise 77% of China’s power mix by 2030 – compared to 29% in 2021 – while coal is nearly phased out by 2040.2 This requires substantial renewable capacity expansion to 4.8 TW by 2030, more than doubling the projected 2025 levels. This aligns with the most recent IEA forecast for China, which shows under current policies, China is expected to reach 4.8 TW of installed renewable energy capacity by 2030.3
However, continued dependency on coal could undermine China’s progress in renewable energy, following plans for another 80 GW of coal-fired capacity to come online in 2024.4 To balance these competing needs, China has introduced the Action Plan for Promoting Large-Scale Equipment Upgrading and Consumer Goods Trade-ins, a policy aimed at improving energy efficiency across sectors and households, which may mitigate supply risks while supporting the transition to net zero.5
China's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Power capacity investments
In 2023, renewable capacity investments reached approximately USD 275 bn in China.6 In the same year, China added approximately 260 GW of solar and 76 GW of wind capacity.
The Net Zero Commitments pathway would see a total 4800 GW of renewable capacity by 2030. This would require an increase in investment to an average USD 305 bn in renewable capacity annually between 2026-2030 – primarily in solar and wind capacity. Further investments will be essential to address challenges related to grids and infrastructure.
Historically, substantial government subsidies (mainly in from of feed-in tariff policies) have been the primary driver of China’s renewable energy expansion. These subsidies, particularly prominent throughout the 2010s, accelerated solar and wind capacity growth. While subsidies for solar and onshore wind have been phased out, they remain for offshore wind but supplied at provincial level.7
Unlike many developing countries that rely heavily on international climate finance, China provides financial support to other developing countries through initiatives like South-South cooperation and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Initially coal power projects played a significant role in the BRI projects but lately BRI finance has started to move away from coal with China’s official declaration to stop supporting new coal projects abroad.8
China's renewable electricity investments and capacities
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Average annual investments in power sector renewable electricity capacity and cumulative installed power capacities across time under 1.5°C compatible pathways downscaled at country levels.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for China
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
548
|
139 to
139
|
22 to
22
|
6 to
6
|
0 to
0
|
2042
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-75 to
-75%
|
-96 to
-96%
|
-99 to
-99%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
63
|
13 to
13
|
2 to
2
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
3
|
3 to
3
|
2 to
2
|
1 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
29
|
77 to
77
|
89 to
89
|
91 to
91
|
91 to
91
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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