What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
LULUCF
China’s LULUCF sector
Historically, China’s LULUCF sector has been a net sink, reaching a net level of 1.3 GtCO2/yr in 2021, corresponding to 11% of total CO2 emissions that year (excluding LULUCF).1 Two thirds of the sequestration came from forest land in 2021. The sink has been increasing since the early 1990s but plateaued in 2018 and stayed relatively steady since then. This is driven by large-scale and centrally funded programs such as the Natural Forest Protection Project initiated in 1998 and the Grain for Green Program in 1999 that halted logging and drove massive afforestation and the biophysical time-lag effect as these forests collectively reached their maximum net carbon sequestration rate during their 15-to-20-year-old growth peak.2
By the end of 2024, China’s forest coverage surpassed 25% (about 240 Mha), driven by large-scale programmes such as the Three-North Shelterbelt and Taklamakan Desert green belt program.3,4 The Three-North Shelterbelt was launched in 1978 to combat severe desertification and water loss across regions that contain 85% of the nation's desertified land.5 The Taklamakan Desert green belt program was launched along the desert-crossing highway to protect the transport route and support the oil and gas exploration and development in the area after the resource discovered in 1989.6 The afforestation effort has also been reinforced by policies including the revised Forest Law (2020) banning illegal logging, the 2023 forest rights reform to increase participation in the national offset scheme. Despite significant gains in forest area through tree planting and more stringent regulation, deforestation is still occurring in China, with an estimated 5.8 Mha of tree cover lost between 2015-2024 primarily due to logging, agriculture and settlement expansion.7
China set a target of increasing the forest stock by 6 bn m3 above 2005 levels by 2030. China met its 2030 target ahead of schedule in 2021 – by 2024 the forest stock volume exceeded 20 bn m3.8 China’s 2025 NDC sets a target to increase forest stock to 24 bn m3 by 2035, an increase of 20% from 2024 levels.9 This may further boost afforestation potential.10,11
China's LULUCF emissions
MtCO₂ / year
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Graph description
Historical CO2 emissions 1990-2020 for the land-use sector are taken from the country's First Biennial Transparency Report where available, and otherwise from Grassi et al (2022): Carbon fluxes from land 2000–2020: bringing clarity to countries' reporting. Future emissions, covering the period 2025-2070, follow a 1.5°C-compatible pathway downscaled to the national level. Positive values represent emissions from deforestation, harvesting, and soil respiration, while negative values reflect CO₂ removals through afforestation and reforestation.
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1.5ºC compatible LULUCF pathways
Across all 1.5ºC compatible pathways, China’s LULUCF sector will continue to be a net sink in the long-term. In the Net Zero Commitments pathway where global warming is limited to 1.5°C through stringent climate policies and innovation, China could reach global net zero CO2 emissions around 2050. The pathway shows the net sink plateauing around 1.6 GtCO2/yr between 2028-2032, followed by a decline.
This decline reflects multiple interacting factors. As planted trees mature, their sequestration potential saturates. At the same time, climate risks such as fires, droughts, storms and pests increasingly undermine forest carbon uptake. The effect of CO2 fertilisation also weakens as emissions fall in 1.5°C pathways and other limiting factors, such as water stress, intensify.
Under the Deep Electrification pathway, which assumes that renewable electricity becomes the cheapest energy carrier (driven by rapid cost declines in wind, solar and batteries) the sink will peak around 1.3 GtCO2/yr in 2020 and plateau or 10 years, before declining to levels similar to 2005 levels by 2050. This means the recent rapid gains in progress are unlikely to sustain into the future.
As the net removals from the LULUCF sector are projected to significantly decline, it highlights that China should not rely on a large carbon sink to meet its net zero target, especially considering the declining capacity of this sink over time.
China's LULUCF emissions
MtCO₂ / year
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Graph description
Historical CO2 emissions 1990-2020 for the land-use sector are taken from the country's First Biennial Transparency Report where available, and otherwise from Grassi et al (2022): Carbon fluxes from land 2000–2020: bringing clarity to countries' reporting. Future emissions, covering the period 2025-2070, follow a 1.5°C-compatible pathway downscaled to the national level. Positive values represent emissions from deforestation, harvesting, and soil respiration, while negative values reflect CO₂ removals through afforestation and reforestation.
Methodology
Data References
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Forestry activities
In the Net Zero Commitments scenario, the trend of increasing removals in the LULUCF sector is driven by continual afforestation (though at a decreasing rate) until 2030. In contrast, the Deep Electrification scenario assumes that there will be no new afforestation in the 2020s. Both scenarios assume a rapid decline in deforestation in the second half of 2020s, with a complete cessation from the 2030s onward.
Other estimates find that with enforcing land rights and tenure regulation, both rule of law conditions which enable socioeconomically successful and environmentally feasible reforestation, reforestation potential could rise to 3.8 Mha compared to 2020 levels, resulting in an additional sink of 29 MtCO2/year over the first 30 years after planting. This illustrates the wide range of potential outcomes for China’s carbon sink.12
China's Forest area change
Million hectares / year
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Graph description
The graph presents five-year averages of changes in forest area. Negative values represent losses in forest area due to deforestation and harvesting, referred to as "forest loss". Historical forest loss data cover the period 2001-2025 and are sourced from Global Forest Watch (2025). Positive values represent forest area expansion through afforestation and/or reforestation, referred to as "forest gain". Historical forest gain data cover the period 2001-2020 and are sourced from the FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment (2025). Future changes in forest area, covering the period 2026-2070, follow a 1.5°C-compatible pathway downscaled to the national level.
Methodology
Data References
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