What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Decarbonising the industry sector
China produced over half of the world’s cement and global crude steel in 2024 and 43% of global chemicals sales in 2023.1 While steel and cement production have likely peaked,2 coal-to-chemicals production has surged, driving up coal consumption and total national emissions by 54 million tonnes of CO2 in 2024.3 At the same time, overcapacity in steel production and other sectors contributes to high production and emission levels.4
China's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Industrial energy use accounted for 18% of China’s total GHG emissions in 2022 (excluding LULUCF), while process-related emissions contributed 13%. Total emissions from industrial energy use and processes started to decline in recent years and this trend should continue according to 1.5°C-aligned pathways.
Under the Net Zero Commitments pathway, CO2 emissions from industrial energy use would fall by 40% between 2021-2030. These reductions would mostly come from a 13% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2030, along with energy efficiency improvements. By 2040 coal would be nearly phased out, while electrification would make up 52% of the industrial energy mix. Hydrogen and biomass would supply a further 17% of the mix by 2040. Moreover, total emissions from industrial processes would fall by 25% between 2023-2030.
China has set 2025 targets to reduce CO₂ and energy intensity, along with 2030 carbon peaking goals for the steel, cement, and aluminium subsectors.5 While electric arc furnaces powered by renewable energy offer a sustainable alternative for hard-to-abate industries – particularly when used to process scrap steel or direct reduced iron made from zero-carbon feedstocks like green hydrogen – electric arc furnace production in China only makes up 10% of the total steel produced. This is far below China’s 15% target for 2025, with utilisation and profitability under pressure.6 In response to the EU’s upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026, China has expanded its national emissions trading scheme to include the cement, steel and aluminium sectors, aligning with CBAM standards.7
China's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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China's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for China
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Industry sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
2809
|
1715 to
1715
|
751 to
751
|
337 to
337
|
21 to
21
|
2044
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-39 to
-39%
|
-73 to
-73%
|
-88 to
-88%
|
-99 to
-99%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
34
|
37 to
37
|
45 to
45
|
52 to
52
|
55 to
55
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
%
|
34
|
42 to
42
|
57 to
57
|
70 to
70
|
81 to
81
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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