What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Decarbonising the industry sector
In 2020, China produced nearly 60% of the world’s cement and crude steel and almost one-third of the primary chemicals used for plastics and fertilisers. Energy emissions from China’s cement and steel sectors alone surpass the total emissions of the European Union, making China’s industry sector key to global decarbonisation.1
China's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Industrial energy use accounted for 20% of China’s total GHG emissions in 2019 (excluding LULUCF), while process-related emissions contributed 14%. Total emissions from industrial energy use and processes continue to grow.
China has set 2025 targets to reduce CO₂ and energy intensity, along with 2030 carbon peaking goals for the steel, cement, and aluminium subsectors.2 The government also aims to reduce energy consumption per unit of product by over 1% for blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace processes and 2% for electric arc furnaces compared to 2023.3 Recent regulations have suspended permits for new steel plants, except for scrap-based electric arc furnace production, which could cut steel industry emissions by up to 200 Mt CO₂ by 20254 In response to the EU’s upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism in 2026, China is expected to expand its national emissions trading scheme by the end of 2024 to include the cement, steel and aluminium sectors, aligning with the CBAM standards.5
Under the Net Zero Commitments pathway, the emissions intensity of industrial energy use would fall by 40% between 2021-2030. This includes a 27% reduction in coal use by 2030, with coal nearly phased out by 2040 as electrification surpasses 50% of the industrial energy mix. Hydrogen and biomass would supply a further 17% of the mix by 2040. Moreover, total emissions of industrial processes would fall by 28% between 2021-2030.
China's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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China's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for China
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised industry sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
2984
|
1715 to
1715
|
751 to
751
|
337 to
337
|
21 to
21
|
2044
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-43 to
-43%
|
-75 to
-75%
|
-89 to
-89%
|
-99 to
-99%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
34
|
37 to
37
|
45 to
45
|
52 to
52
|
55 to
55
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
per cent
|
34
|
42 to
42
|
57 to
57
|
70 to
70
|
81 to
81
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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