What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
China
Economy wide
A 1.5°C compatible pathway would require China to reduce emissions by 18% below 2005 levels by 2030 (or to reach emissions levels of 6.4 GtCO₂e/yr), excluding LULUCF. This assessment is in line with an earlier study, which found that China’s GHG emissions would need to peak almost immediately and double the non-fossil fuel energy share target by 2030.1
China's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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2030 NDC
In October 2021, China officially submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) that includes the following targets: peak CO₂ emissions before 2030, reduce carbon intensity of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by over 65% below 2005 levels, and increase non-fossil fuel energy consumption to around 25%.2 Achieving these targets would result in estimated emissions levels of 13.4-14.7 GtCO₂e/yr by 2030, excluding LULUCF, or 72-88% above 2005 levels.3
Current policy projection
Under current policy projections China is set to meet its 2030 emissions peaking target.4 Nonetheless, current policies are not aligned with a 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Net zero target
China’s updated NDC also includes a long-term goal of carbon neutrality by 2060. This target likely covers CO₂ only, rather than all GHGs.
2050 Ambition
To be compatible with 1.5°C pathways, China’s CO₂ emissions, excluding LULUCF, need to be 91% below 2005 levels by 2050, or 549 MtCO₂/yr by 2050. GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF, would need to reach 1611 MtCO₂e/yr in 2050, a reduction of 79% below 2005 levels.
Decarbonisation
Decarbonisation of the power sector and industrial processes is critical in driving down GHG emissions, and aligning with a 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Sectors
Power
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To achieve a 1.5°C compatible pathway, China would need to increase the share of renewable energy in its power generation mix from 27% in 2019 to 90% by 2030 and 94-100% in 2050.
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Coal, which made up a 65% share of the power mix in 2019, would need to be phased out around 2030. Similarly, fossil gas, which made up 3% of the power mix in 2019, would need to be phased out between 2025 and 2031.5
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A 1.5°C compatible pathway requires power emissions intensity to reach zero by 2039 at the latest, and go negative in 2050.
Buildings
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As of 2019, the sector’s CO₂ emissions stood at 454 MtCO₂/yr, a 66% increase since 2000.
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Emissions reduction in the sector would necessitate increased energy efficiency and electrification based on a renewable power supply. China recognises the importance of these actions in the country’s NDC.
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To achieve 1.5°C compatibility, electricity’s share of buildings energy demand would need to more than double in 2030 (69-72%) compared to 2019 levels (30%).
Industry
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China’s industrial activity resulted in emissions of around 5.1 GtCO₂e/yr in 2019 (about 38% of the country’s total GHG emissions in that year, excluding LULUCF).
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A 1.5°C compatible pathway for China’s industrial sector would see energy-related emissions, which were 3.1 GtCO₂/yr in 2019, decrease 71-78% by 2030 and reach full decarbonisation between 2040 and 2050.
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Industry emissions reductions could be driven by increased sectoral electrification and the introduction of hydrogen as a feedstock or energy carrier. Electricity’s share of industrial energy use would reach 72% by 2050.
Transport
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Energy-related emissions in China’s transport sector were 901 MtCO₂/yr in 2019.
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For China, a 1.5°C compatible transport sector would require an emissions reduction of 58-61% below 2019 levels by 2030, and reaching zero emissions by around 2050.
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These reductions could be achieved by increasing electrification of the sector to 41-84% by 2050. Hydrogen could contribute another 2-8% by 2030, and 15-24% by 2050.
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EV sales will go a long way to address emissions reductions in the transport sector. Modal shift, from private to public transport for passengers, and from road to rail for freight, will also be required.