What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
China generates a little over a quarter of the world’s electricity. As of 2019, the country’s power mix is 65% reliant on coal. 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that China would need to phase out coal between 2030 and 2040, and increase the share of renewables in power generation to around 90% by 2030. Gas, which in 2019 accounted for around 3% of the power mix, would need to be phased out this decade.
Year-on-year growth of wind and solar capacity for power generation has remained high, particularly compared with fossil fuel-based capacity. In 2020, China installed 73 GW of wind and 49 GW of solar capacity.
China’s NDC sets a target of 1200 GW of installed wind and solar by 2030, and this target is restated in its 14th Five-year Plan for Renewable Energy. Although this is welcome, it is nonetheless an unambitious target given current policy projections and recent wind and solar capacity growth rates.
China's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
For 1.5°C compatibility, China’s power sector would need to reach zero CO₂ emissions no later than 2039 and contribute to negative emissions thereafter. Carbon intensity would need to reach 0-60 gCO₂/kWh by 2030, a reduction of 89%–99% below 2019 levels.
Decarbonisation of the power sector could primarily be driven by the phase-out of coal and by transitioning to renewables. Some scenarios analysed show that carbon capture and storage (CCS) may also play a minor role in a 1.5°C compatible pathway. However, given that CCS is not currently commercially viable, and that none of the three large scale projects under development is expected to come online before mid-century, this technology should not be seen as a substitute for the phase-out of coal and gas.1
The 1.5°C scenarios analysed show renewables dominating China’s future power generation mix, contributing 90% by 2030. Wind and solar capacities have grown significantly faster than hydropower capacity in recent years, and are poised to overtake hydropower in the near future.
However, in terms of current generation, hydropower far surpasses wind and solar, the three generating respectively 1273 TWh (17% of total), 406 TWh (5%), and 224 TWh (3%) in 2019.2 The Chinese government aims to increase the country’s hydro capacity, alongside wind and solar.3,4 However, continuing development of hydropower, particularly of the large-scale variety, poses significant environmental and social risks.5-6
China's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in China to be on the order of USD 85 to 413 billion by 2030 and USD 94 to 593 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors, growing energy demand, and expansion of electricity access. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time compared with a current policy scenario. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and thus sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
China's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for China
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
564
|
5 to
59
|
0 to
0
|
-50 to
-1
|
2030 to
2039
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-99 to
-89%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
-109 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
65
|
0 to
7
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
3
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
2025 to
2031
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
27
|
90 to
91
|
93 to
97
|
94 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
68
|
1 to
8
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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