LULUCF

LULUCF emissions profile trajectories

In its updated NDC, China plans to enhance carbon sequestration through reforestation and improvement in forest quality. Part of the plan is a target to increase forest stock volume by 6 billion m³ over 2005 levels by 2030. This is an increased target from 4.5 billion m³ stated in China’s former NDC.¹ In addition, in 2021 China agreed to “halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030” under the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forest and Land Use.

In its 2018 Biennial Update Report on Climate Change (BUR), China reported that the land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector removed –1115 MtCO₂e/year in 2014, most of which (–840 MtCO₂e/year) occurred on forested land.² A large share of this is likely to be from sequestration in existing forests, but China’s reforestation programs have also contributed. An independent estimate found that reforestation of 45 Mha during 2000 – 2020 sequestered –247 MtCO₂/year over that period.³

The 1.5°C compatible pathway analysed here shows an increasing trend in annual carbon sequestration from afforestation/reforestation over the next 30 years, but this starts from a smaller carbon sink level than reported in China’s BUR. This is due to different definitions of what is considered to be anthropogenic – China has a very large area of forest land, but the 1.5°C pathway shown here only includes sequestration on actively managed land.

The 1.5°C pathway indicates that sustainable afforestation/reforestation can sequester –100 MtCO₂/year by 2030, and up to –270 MtCO₂/year by 2060. These are at similar levels to other independent estimates that find sustainable reforestation could sequester –77 MtCO₂/year by 2030, and –235 MtCO₂/year by 2060 (see Forest area change section).⁴

Several policies and programs in China highlight the potential to enhance carbon removals from the optimisation of land use management and protection of carbon-rich and biodiversity-rich areas, such as forest and grasslands; such activities are highlighted in the Chinese Environmental Protection Law, Ecological Conservation Red Line policy, and National Forest Protection Program.⁵^,⁶^,⁷

Note that there is an inconsistency between modelled LULUCF emissions and sequestration and historical emissions and sequestration reported by countries. This is because of a difference in how anthropogenic emissions and sequestration are estimated in greenhouse gas inventories compared to models.

Graph description

Historical CO2 emissions in 2005 – 2020 for the LULUCF sector are derived from national greenhouse gas inventories (data source: FAO 2021). Future emissions trajectory in 2025 - 2060 for the LULUCF sector is derived from a global 1.5°C compatible pathway downscaled to the country level (data source: IMAGE 2021). Positive emissions indicate an increase in deforestation or other sources related to land use change. Negative emissions indicate an increase of forest area through afforestation/reforestation.

Methodology
- Downscaling LULUCF emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: FAO (2021). Emissions pathway: IMAGE (2021).

Graph description

The graph indicates the annual rate of forest area change. Negative values result from a loss in forest area through deforestation and forestry (i.e. harvesting). Positive values result in forest area expansion through reforestation or afforestation. Data source: IMAGE 2021

Methodology
- Determining forest area changes
Data References
- Pathway: IMAGE (2021)

Forest area change

China’s latest National Forest Inventory states that the country’s forest land in the period 2014-2018 was around 220 Mha. This represents a 65% increase over the area reportedly covered by forests during the period 1989-1993 (134 Mha).⁸

In a recent report on China’s forests, the FAO presents similar values for forest cover: 157 Mha in 1990, covering 16% of China’s land area, increasing to 220 Mha (23% of land area) in 2020.⁹ The increased forest cover in China is due to both regeneration of natural forests and through reforestation and afforestation occurring in planted forests.

Regeneration of natural forests has come in large part due to conservation efforts which ramped up around 2000. In 1998, devastating floods impacted the Yangtze and Yellow rivers in Central China and led to strong government response to combat deforestation.¹⁰ In 2017, a ban on logging of natural forests was introduced as part of the 2000 Natural Forest Protection Programme (NFPP).¹¹^,¹²^,¹³

Planted forest area accounted for the largest absolute increase in forest area, over 40 Mha between 1990 and 2020. The afforestation program in the NFFP, and Chinese forest conservation efforts generally, have benefited from increased government revenue. Investment in the NFFP increased almost 25-fold since its inception.¹⁴ Between 2010 and 2020, an average of 6.7 Mha per year were afforested. Almost half of this afforestation is due to manual planting.¹⁵

However, China’s afforestation program has faced challenges that would need to be resolved before it embarks on a larger program. For example, in the past China’s poplar monoculture was damaged by a single disease, and choices over which tree species to plant and which land areas to convert to forest have contributed to biodiversity loss.¹⁶^,¹⁷ China would need to consider moving away from monoculture plantations.

The Chinese government pledged to increase forest coverage from around 23% in 2020 to 24% by 2025, then to 25% by 2030. This is equivalent to around 3.6 Mha of new forest every year, at least until 2025.¹⁸^,¹⁹ But there have been concerns raised over the suitability of land for tree planting. Some parts of China, especially in the north-western region, are dry and might not be compatible with tree growth.²⁰

The 1.5°C compatible pathway analysed here show that China’s afforestation/reforestation efforts would need to continue, but the rate of increase in forest area in this pathway (around 0.6 Mha per year to 2030) is lower than the Chinese government’s pledge implies. This rate is also lower than the pace of afforestation/reforestation seen in recent years. There may be different definitions of forest cover between the modelled pathway and national data that explain part of this difference.

Graph description

The graph at the left shows the changes in land-use types relative to the total of available land in 2005 - 2060. The graph at the right shows the changes in land-use types relative to their 2020 levels. The land-use types included in the analysis are forest, land dedicated to pasture and cropland, built-up areas for settlements, and other natural area. This latter variable includes all areas unsuitable for agriculture, abandoned agricultural land, and natural forests. Data source: IMAGE 2021

Methodology
- Determining land cover areas
Data References
- Pathway: IMAGE (2021)

Graph description

The graph at the left shows the changes in land-use types relative to the total of available land in 2005 - 2060. The graph at the right shows the changes in land-use types relative to their 2020 levels. The land-use types included in the analysis are forest, land dedicated to pasture and cropland, built-up areas for settlements, and other natural area. This latter variable includes all areas unsuitable for agriculture, abandoned agricultural land, and natural forests. Data source: IMAGE 2021

Methodology
- Determining land cover areas
Data References
- Pathway: IMAGE (2021)

Evolution of land-use pattern

In its latest bulletin, China’s National Forestry and Grassland Administration stated that in 2021, 2.6 Mha of forests were planted and 0.4 Mha of farmland were converted to forests. In addition, 0.9 Mha of degraded forests and 1.6 Mha of degraded grasslands were restored.²¹

The 1.5°C compatible pathway analysed shows a steady increase in China’s managed forest area, reaching 5 Mha above 2020 levels by 2030, and 30 Mha above 2020 levels by 2060. For comparison, another estimate indicates that there is the potential to increase forest area by 22 Mha above 2020 levels by 2030, and 30 Mha above 2020 levels by 2060.²²

Such an expansion of forests would require strategic planning that considers local ecological and social conditions, including food security, population growth, and biodiversity protection.²³ One study has estimated that the maximum area for sustainable reforestation after 2020 is limited to 32 Mha, after considering the constraints in water stress, lans needed for food production and urbanisation, and the 25% forest coverage goal.²⁴ This is a similar scale to the level of afforestation/reforestation seen in our 1.5°C pathway by 2060.

Most of the new forest in this 1.5°C pathway is planted on former pasture land, which declines steadily over the next few decades. Improved livestock productivity through technological advancement and reduced consumption of livestock products could reduce the need to expand pasture land.²⁵ Land used for crops expands in the near-term in the 1.5°C pathway before decreasing gradually until 2060. This reduction in agricultural land could be made possible through the implementation of sustainable agriculture practices that improve crop productivity, and a move away from agriculture expansion into forest areas.²⁶

The People’s Republic of China. China’s Achievements, New Goals and New Measures for Nationally Determined Contributions. 2021. ↩
Using global warming potentials (GWP) from the Forth Assessment Report (AR4). ↩
Lu, N. et al. Biophysical and economic constraints on China’s natural climate solutions. Nat Clim Chang 12, 847–853 (2022). ↩
Lu, N. et al. Biophysical and economic constraints on China’s natural climate solutions. Nat Clim Chang 12, 847–853 (2022). ↩
The People’s Republic of China. China’s Achievements, New Goals and New Measures for Nationally Determined Contributions. 2021. ↩
Lai, L. et al. Carbon emissions from land-use change and management in China between 1990 and 2010. Sci Adv 2, (2016). ↩
Ecological Conservation Red Line along with Arable Land Red Line and Water Reserve Red Line ensure the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services while enhancing socio-economic development and food security. ECRL ensures there is no net change in land use, no net loss in biodiversity or degradation of ecosystem services critical ecosystems.[^27] ↩
National Forestry and Grassland Administration. Forest Resources in China - The 9th National Forest Inventory. 2019. ↩
FAO. Society, economy and forests: The unfolding forest transition In China and lessons for the future. (2021) doi:10.4060/cb3232en. ↩
Sandalow, D. Guide to Chinese Climate Policy 2019. 2019. ↩
FAO. Society, economy and forests: The unfolding forest transition In China and lessons for the future. (2021) doi:10.4060/cb3232en. ↩
Ren, G. et al. Effectiveness of China’s National Forest Protection Program and nature reserves. Conserv. Biol. 29, 1368–1377 (2015). ↩
Logging was banned in natural forests in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow and Yangtze rivers. The. NFPP also imposed reduced logging in state-owned natural forests in northeaster China and Inner Mongolia.[^28] ↩
Investment in the NFPP was 12,454 million CNY in 2000 and increased to 321,253 million CNY by the end of 2018.[^29] ↩
National Bureau of Statistics of China. China Statistical Yearbook 2021. 2021. ↩
Campbell, C. China’s big climate pledge at davos sounds promising, but experts are skeptical. TIME (2022). ↩
Lai, L. et al. Carbon emissions from land-use change and management in China between 1990 and 2010. Sci Adv 2, (2016). ↩
The People’s Republic of China. China’s Mid-Century Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy. 2021. ↩
China SCIO. China eyes 24.1% forest coverage rate by 2025. The State Council Information Office. The People’s Republic of China (2021). ↩
Yang, X. & Ci, L. Comment on “Why Large-Scale Afforestation Efforts in China Have Failed To Solve the Desertification Problem”. Environ Sci Technol 42, 7722–7723 (2008). ↩
Xinhua. China’s land-greening in 2021. The State Council of The People’s Republic of China (2022). ↩
Lu, N. et al. Biophysical and economic constraints on China’s natural climate solutions. Nat Clim Chang 12, 847–853 (2022). ↩
Wang, J., Lin, Y., Glendinning, A. & Xu, Y. Land-use changes and land policies evolution in China’s urbanization processes. Land use policy 75, 375–387 (2018). ↩
Lu, N. et al. Biophysical and economic constraints on China’s natural climate solutions. Nat Clim Chang 12, 847–853 (2022). ↩
Jin, X. et al. Pathways to sustainable land-use and food systems in China by 2050,
2020 report of the FABLE Consortium. 2020. ↩
Jin, X. et al. Pathways to sustainable land-use and food systems in China by 2050,
2020 report of the FABLE Consortium. 2020. ↩

What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

LULUCF emissions profile trajectories

China's LULUCF emissions

MtCO₂/yr

China's Forest area change

Million ha / yr

Forest area change

China's Land cover areas

Million ha

China's land cover change relative to 2020

Million ha

Evolution of land-use pattern

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