What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Buildings
China’s building sector (residential and commercial) accounted for around 21% of total energy consumption in 2019. Electricity and heat production in China is very coal-intensive, so that indirect energy use in the buildings sector contributed about 15% of the country’s total emissions in 2020.1 CO₂ emissions of direct energy use in the sector stood at 454 MtCO₂ in 2019. These emissions declined by 14% since peaking in 2017. In general, however, there has been an upward trend since 2000, so that 2019 emissions were 66% above 2000 levels.
China's energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
-
Graph description
Energy mix composition in the buildings sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
-
China’s updated NDC asserts that it will “implement green and low-carbon requirements in all aspects of urban and rural planning and construction management” including the application of “green building standards” to all new urban buildings by 2025.2 These statements are reiterated in the country’s LTS, which provides further targets for the sector. These include achieving a rate of 8% for fossil fuel replacement by renewables by 2025 and 50% rooftop PV coverage for new public buildings and factories by that year.3
Achieving 1.5°C compatibility would require energy-related emissions in China’s building sector to reach zero between 2033 and 2035. This would in turn necessitate increased energy efficiency and electrification in the sector. Electricity’s share of energy consumption would need to reach 69-72% by 2030. Maximising emissions reductions due to greater electrification of the sector would be predicated on increasing renewables penetration as detailed above.
China's buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
-
Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
-
1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and hydrogen in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for China
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised buildings sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
454
|
128 to
143
|
7 to
20
|
0 to
1
|
2033 to
2035
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-72 to
-68%
|
-98 to
-96%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
30
|
69 to
72
|
81 to
86
|
84 to
84
|
|
Share of heat
per cent
|
17
|
8 to
12
|
7 to
16
|
9 to
18
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
1 to
6
|
2 to
6
|
5 to
6
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
-
Methodology
Data References
-