What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
China’s transport sector CO₂ emissions were 901 MtCO₂ in 2019, an increase of 127% since 2005. Motorised road transport (including passenger and freight) accounts for more than 80% of these emissions.1 Transport sector energy consumption stood at 13.5 EJ/yr in 2019, accounting for 15% of the national total in that year. The vast majority, 87%, is met by oil.
China's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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China’s NDC highlights the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs), modal shift in passenger and freight transport, and energy efficiency as decarbonisation measures for the transport sector already underway.2 Indeed, China is set to reach its goal of a 20% EV share in new vehicle sales by 2025, possibly even earlier.3 The country’s LTS sets a further target for 40% market share of “new energy and clean energy” vehicles by 2030.
For China, 1.5°C compatibility would require an emissions reduction in the transport sector of 58-61% below 2019 levels by 2030, and reaching zero by 2050. This could result from increasing electrification of the sector as well as the introduction of hydrogen to the fuel mix. Zero emissions fuels could contribute 6-34% by 2030, and 41-99% by 2050, with electrification making up the greatest share.4 Biomass liquids could also play a role, accounting for 7-18% of the fuel mix in 2030 and 29-47% in 2050 in these pathways, although sustainability risks would need to be taken into account.
As the total number of cars in China is likely to further increase in the coming years, efforts to increase EV sales will be critical. Modal shift, from private to public transport for passengers, and from road to rail for freight, will also be required to effectively decarbonise sector.
China's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for China
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
901
|
349 to
375
|
164 to
165
|
0 to
57
|
2049 to
2050
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-61 to
-58%
|
-82 to
-82%
|
-100 to
-94%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
4
|
12 to
23
|
30 to
62
|
41 to
84
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
1
|
7 to
18
|
29 to
32
|
29 to
47
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
2 to
8
|
7 to
25
|
15 to
24
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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