Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

China’s NDC aims to peak CO₂ emissions before 2030, reduce carbon intensity by over 65% from 2005 levels, and increase non-fossil fuels energy share to around 25%. This is estimated to result in emissions of 13.4-14.7 GtCO₂e/yr by 2030, excluding LULUCF, or 72-88% above 2005 levels.¹

A 1.5°C compatible pathway would require China’s GHG emissions to peak almost immediately and fall by around 18% below 2005 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF – confirming results from previous studies. This translates to an emissions level of around 6.4 GtCO₂e/yr by 2030.3 This means that China would need to close a 2030 emissions gap of around 7 GtCO₂e/yr to be 1.5°C compatible.

Carbon dioxide emissions alone would need to decline to about 5.2 GtCO₂/yr by 2030, excluding LULUCF. Based on current GDP projections, a 1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions level would correspond to a carbon intensity reduction of 80-85% below 2005 levels by 2030.² In order to close the gap between this 1.5°C compatible level and the NDC target, China would have to make stronger efforts in its energy and industrial process sectors.

China’s 14^th Five Year Plan, covering the years 2021 to 2025, has set a target to reduce current carbon intensity by 18% over those years.³ China beat its previous five year target (also an 18% reduction), achieving an 18.8% reduction between 2015 and 2020.⁴ Achieving the 14^th Five Year Plan carbon intensity target and a further 18% reduction between 2026 and 2030 would allow China to achieve its proposed NDC update target. However, a greater reduction would be necessary to be 1.5°C compatible.

China's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

2005
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

China submitted an official Long-Term Strategy (LTS) to the UNFCCC in October 2021. This includes the target of carbon neutrality by 2060.⁵ This target likely covers CO₂ only, rather than all GHGs.⁶^,⁷

To be compatible with a 1.5°C pathways, China’s CO₂ emissions, excluding LULUCF, need to be 91% below 2005 levels by 2050, or 549 MtCO₂/yr by 2050. GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF, would need to reach 1611 MtCO₂e/yr in 2050, a reduction of 79% below 2005 levels.

Remaining GHG emissions will need to be balanced using carbon dioxide removal approaches (CDR), including sustainable afforestation/reforestation, direct air capture, or sustainable bioenergy coupled with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

Of the 1.5°C compatible illustrative pathways analysed, negative emissions from industrial processes feature prominently in those scenarios which assume a high global reliance on CDR, particularly after 2040. The scenario which assumes low global CDR and high energy demand has agriculture as the leading emitting sector after 2040, followed by industry, and these emissions are offset by negative emissions in the energy sector.

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

China’s updated NDC update aims to increase the share of non-fossil sources in total primary energy consumption to 25% by 2030. In 2019, non-fossil sources (renewables, biomass, nuclear) made up 12% of primary energy supply while coal made up 61%.

China’s coal consumption tripled between 2000 and 2013, and since 2007 the country has accounted for around 50% of the world’s coal consumption.⁸ In 2019, China used coal mostly for the production of electric power and heat (45% of total consumption) and manufacturing (46%). Of the coal used in manufacturing, 26% was for the processing of petroleum, coal, and other fuels.

To realise a 1.5°C compatible pathway that avoids high reliance on carbon dioxide removal approaches in the future, China would have to double its 2030 non-fossil target. Some 1.5°C pathways with a lower penetration of renewable energy rely on the development and utilisation of nuclear energy and fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage (CCS). However, there is no fossil fuel–fired power generation with large-scale CCS in operation or in construction in China and this technology is currently not a commercially viable option in the power sector.⁹ Conversely, there is clear potential for a continued rapid scale-up of renewables.

Switching from a reliance on coal in the power sector to renewables and improving energy efficiency in industrial processes are proven and cost controllable options for China to achieve deep emissions reductions.¹⁰

With regards to heating, China has recently seen rapid growth in the deployment of renewable energy, both in the building and industry sectors. The IEA projects this growth to continue and for the country to also take up renewable district heating in the near future.¹¹

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for China. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

2005
2010
2015

Indicator	2005 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	7809	13468	6400 5828 to 8120	3188 2113 to 3421	1611 1349 to 1777
Relative to reference year in %			-18% -25 to 4%	-59% -73 to -56%	-79% -83 to -77%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	6025	11088	5243 4816 to 6509	2490 851 to 2914	549 207 to 1439	2067
Relative to reference year in %			-13% -20 to 8%	-59% -86 to -52%	-91% -97 to -76%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: Climate Action Tracker 2022 update
- Download data as CSV

Climate Action Tracker. China. May 2022 update. Climate Action Tracker. 2022. ↩
The assessment of GDP carbon intensity follows from that conducted in previous analysis but here we have updated data on historical carbon emissions (using the PRIMAP 2021 database), GDP (using Chinese Statistical Yearbook 2021), and GDP growth projections (from World Bank). The GDP growth rate from 2025-2030 is assumed to be 5% p.a. ↩
Liu, H., Liu, J. & You, X. Q&A: What does China’s 14th ‘five year plan’ mean for climate change? Carbon Brief. 2021. ↩
Xu, M. & Singh, S. China cuts ‘carbon intensity’ 18.8% in past five years, in effort to rein in emissions. Reuters. 2021. ↩
The People’s Republic of China. China’s Mid-Century Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy. 2021. ↩
Climate Action Tracker. China. May 2022 update. Climate Action Tracker. 2022. ↩
If only covering CO₂, the target would lead to around 2050 MtCO₂e p.a. in 2060 (excluding LULUCF) or emissions reductions of around 75% below 2005 levels. If the target were to cover all GHG emissions, 2060 emissions would be around 600 MtCO₂e p.a. (excluding LULUCF), or around 92% below 2005 levels.[^12] The 0.1°C of additional warming by 2100 would be a result of the difference in cumulative emissions between an emissions pathway which follow a carbon neutrality target (leading to greater cumulative emissions) versus a GHG neutrality target (leading to less cumulative emissions). ↩
IEA. Coal Information: Overview. 2020. ↩
Yvonne Deng, Ursula Fuentes, Hare, B., Welder, L. & Gidden, M. U.S. and China Climate Goals : Scenarios for 2030 and Mid-Century. 2020. ↩
World Resources Institute. Accelerating the Net-Zero Transition: Strategic Action for China’s 14th Five-Year Plan. 2020. doi:https://doi.org/10.46830/wrirpt.20.00018. ↩
IEA. Renewables 2021 Analysis and forecasts to 2026. 2021. ↩

What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

China's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

China's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

China's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Cookie settings

Statistics

Google