What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
China’s industry sector accounted for 49% of final energy consumption in 2019. Industrial energy consumption increased substantially between 2002-2014, before somewhat flattening out at around 42 EJ/yr. Industry emissions in China were 5.1 GtCO₂e in 2019 (about 38% of the country’s total GHG emissions in that year, excluding LULUCF). The sector’s energy use has become less emissions intensive in recent years, with a 14% reduction in gCO₂/MJ between 2009-2019. Given the industry sector’s importance to the national economy, and the ongoing initiatives put in place to both reduce industrial energy intensity and transition the sector to higher value-added manufacturing, China has realised a 48.1% reduction in carbon intensity (CO₂ per unit of GDP) in 2019 relative to 2005 levels.1,2,3
China's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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A transition towards “green and low-carbon industries” is one of the key components of China’s NDC implementation. The government has already put policies in place to direct capital to green industries such as the manufacturing of electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies and seeks to further improve industrial energy efficiency and resource utilisation.4 In addition, high emitting industries such as steel, cement, and aluminium are likely to be targeted in the expansion of the country’s ETS.5,6
A 1.5°C compatible pathway for China’s industry sector would see energy-related emissions, which were 3124 MtCO₂ in 2019, decrease 71-78% by 2030 and reach zero between 2040 and 2050. This could be driven by increased sectoral electrification and the introduction of hydrogen as an energy carrier and feedstock. Electricity’s share of industrial energy use would reach 72% by 2050. The sector’s emissions intensity could consequently decline by roughly 60% from 2019 to 2030. As this is a much greater decline than the 14% between 2009-2019, increased efforts in energy efficiency and energy transition should be undertaken in the sector.
Similarly, industry process emissions would need to rapidly decline. Some analysed pathways show that emissions should have already peaked in 2020, reaching 1990 levels by 2030 and close to zero by 2050.
China's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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China's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, shares of electricity, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for China
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised industry sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
3124
|
679 to
905
|
179 to
315
|
20 to
77
|
2040 to
2050
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-78 to
-71%
|
-94 to
-90%
|
-99 to
-98%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
33
|
45 to
51
|
65 to
67
|
72 to
72
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogren and biomass
per cent
|
33
|
52 to
60
|
68 to
83
|
73 to
86
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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