Current Situation

Last update: 1 October 2021

Emissions profile

In 2014, most of China’s emissions were due to energy use (77%). Within this broad category, CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion for heat and power (33% of total GHG emissions) and for industry (26% of total GHG emissions) made up the lion’s share. With regards to non-CO₂ emissions, the combined CH₄ and N₂O in the agriculture sector made up 8% of total emissions. Fugitive emissions from the energy sector were also a large source of CH₄.

Although China’s total emissions (excluding LULUCF) grew on average 7% year-on-year between 2000 and 2013 (with growth peaking in 2003 at 14%), they have grown more slowly in recent years. This decline in emissions growth is particularly noticeable in industrial energy use, which has experienced negative rates, primarily driven by energy efficiency gains due to technological improvement and optimisation of industrial infrastructure.¹^,²

Current policy projections indicate that by 2030, China’s emissions will grow by 72-78% above 2005 levels, excluding LULUCF.³

Graph description

Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Last available (negative) LULUCF data point from 2014

Data References
- PRIMAP-Hist 2019. Energy sub-sectors emissions based on the IEA CO2 Fuel 2019. Inventory year: 2017.
- LULUCF emissions: latest available data as reported by the Climate Action Tracker 2020 update.

Energy system

China’s energy supply accounts for 23.5% of the global total.⁴ The country’s primary energy mix consists of 61% coal, 7% fossil gas, 19% oil, 3% nuclear, and 10% renewables (including biomass). The power generation mix is comprised of 65% coal, 2.8% fossil gas, 0.1% oil, 4.7% nuclear, and 27% renewables (including biomass).

China’s continued investment in new coal-fired power plants increases the risk of carbon lock-in and stranded assets.⁵ This is particularly the case as continued investment in coal comes despite existing coal overcapacity issues.⁶^,⁷ China’s reliance on coal seemingly shows little sign of decline as the building of new plants is used to boost GDP, and industry groups argue that these plants will be needed to meet future energy demand.⁸ Between 2000 and 2017, coal has met over 50% of net new electricity demand in 13 out of 18 years. China currently has around 251 GW of coal capacity under development. In 2021 alone, China commissioned 25.2 GW of new coal plants.⁹

There are, however, some encouraging signs. President Xi Jinping has recently announced that China will begin to phase down coal from 2026.¹⁰^,¹¹ With regards to overseas financing, China’s investments in coal plants through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have been substantially reduced since peaking in 2015 and 2016. Of the 52 coal plant projects announced between 2014 and 2020, only one has gone into operation (25 have been shelved and eight have been cancelled).¹² China did not make any coal investments through the BRI in 2021 but increased support for oil and gas.¹³

Despite China’s reliance on coal, in recent years renewables have taken on a greater role in the power sector. Between 2016 and 2020, renewables accounted for 64% of new capacity additions. In 2020, China brought 73 GW of wind and 49 GW of solar online. This is about 16% of the country’s total installed renewable generation capacity (including hydro) in 2019 and significantly greater than recent single year net additions.

Targets and commitments

Economy-wide targets

Target type

Base year intensity target

NDC target

Unconditional NDC Target:

Peak CO₂ emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.
Non-fossil fuel share in primary energy use: ~ 25% by 2030.
Forest stock: ~ 6 billion m³ increase over 2005 levels by 2030.
Increase wind and solar capacity to 1200 GW by 2030.
Carbon intensity of GDP: over 65% below 2005 by 2030 (role of LULUCF unclear).
Translates to GHG emissions of 72% - 80% above 2005 by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).¹⁴

Note: NDC peaking target excludes significant non-CO₂ emissions agriculture, industry, and energy.

Market mechanisms

The Chinese National Carbon Market covers 2225 power plants. There are plans to expand market coverage over next five years to cover 80% of total CO₂ emissions.¹⁵^,¹⁶

Long-term target

China aims to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. However, it is unclear whether this target covers all GHGs or only CO₂.¹⁷

Sectoral targets

Energy

NDC: Increase share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 25%.
Leader’s summit announcement (April 2021): Coal will be phased down from 2026.¹⁸

Power

NDC: Increase installed capacity of wind and solar polar to 1200 GW by 2030.

Transport

New energy vehicles (NEVs) to account for 20% of new car sales by 2025.¹⁹
Average power consumption of pure electric vehicles to be brought down to 12 kWh/100 km by 2035.²⁰

LULUCF

NDC: Increase forest stock volume by around 6 billion m³ in 2030 from 2005 levels.

Liu, Q. et al. Pathway and policy analysis to China’s deep decarbonization. Chinese J. Popul. Resour. Environ. 15, 39–49 (2017). ↩
Zheng, X. et al. Drivers of change in China’s energy-related CO2 emissions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 117, 29–36 (2020). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. China. November 2022 update. Climate Action Tracker. 2022. ↩
IEA. Key World Energy Statistics. 2021. ↩
Yvonne Deng, Ursula Fuentes, Hare, B., Welder, L. & Gidden, M. U.S. and China Climate Goals : Scenarios for 2030 and Mid-Century. 2020. ↩
Bahr, A. China’s coal capacity surge need not be at odds with ambitious climate action. China Dialogue. 2020. ↩
Myllyvirta, L., Zhang, S. & Shen, X. Analysis: Will China build hundreds of new coal plants in the 2020s? Carbon Brief. 2020). ↩
Myllyvirta, L., Zhang, S. & Shen, X. Analysis: Will China build hundreds of new coal plants in the 2020s? Carbon Brief. 2020). ↩
Global Energy Monitor et al. Boom and Bust Coal 2022. 2022. ↩
Climate Action Tracker. New momentum reduces emissions gap, but huge gap remains - analysis. Climate Action Tracker. 2021. ↩
Reuters. China to cut coal use share below 56% in 2021. Reuters. 2021. ↩
Wang, C. N. Brief: Coal phase-out in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): an analysis of Chinese-backed coal power from 2014-2020. 2021. ↩
Wang, C. N. China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Investment report 2021. Green BRI Center, International Institute of Green Finance (IIGF). 2022. ↩
Climate Action Tracker. China. November 2022 update. Climate Action Tracker. 2022. ↩
Kusmer, A. China launches world’s largest carbon market. PRI. 2021. ↩
Farand, C. China launches world’s largest carbon market for power sector. Climate Home News. 2021. ↩
Yvonne Deng, Ursula Fuentes, Hare, B., Welder, L. & Gidden, M. U.S. and China Climate Goals : Scenarios for 2030 and Mid-Century. 2020. ↩
Jinping, X. Full Text: Remarks by Chinese President Xi Jinping at Leaders Summit on Climate. Xinhuanet. 2021. ↩
Xinhua. China unveils plan for new energy vehicle industry. Xinhuanet. 2021. ↩
Lutsey, N., Cui, H. & Yu, R. Evaluating Electric Vehicle Costs and Benefits in China in the 2020 – 2035 Time Frame. 2021. ↩

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