What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
Raising ambition
In 2022, China’s GHG emissions reached 14.5 GtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF. The country’s NDC is not aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, which would require emissions to fall to 6.8 GtCO₂e/yr by 2030, or 19% below 2005 levels. When excluding LULUCF, achieving the NDC would result in 13.5-14.6 GtCO₂e/yr in 2030 (61-74% above 2005 levels) – which is a long way off from being 1.5°C compatible.
When including LULUCF, China’s total emissions under 1.5°C compatible pathways would fall to 3.15 GtCO2e, or 58% below 2005 levels by 2035. China would need to strengthen its 2030 target and submit a 2035 target in line with these pathways to be 1.5°C compatible. Our downscaled indicative 1.5°C LULUCF pathways for many Asian countries show a large growth in carbon sinks in 2030. This is because many of the pathways assessed by the IPCC’s AR6 assessment show a similar growth in carbon sinks for the Asia region as a whole. If this growth in carbon sinks is not achieved, then further emissions reductions would need to be achieved elsewhere. For more information on our indicative 1.5°C LULUCF pathways, please see our methodology page.
Achieving these levels of reductions would require an unprecedented acceleration of the energy transition in China. The reductions in gross emissions are driven by rapid decarbonisation of the power sector, with coal generation significantly reduced by 2030 and entirely phased out by 2040. This drives over half of the reductions in gross emissions by 2030. In addition, there is a significant reduction in industrial CO2 emissions, methane emissions from fossil fuel extraction (largely coal mine methane in China) and industrial process emissions. Achieving these reductions will be challenging but would put China on a pathway aligned with limiting warming to 1.5°C with no or low overshoot. In addition to these transitions in the energy sector, net emission reductions are driven by the large carbon sink modelled in IPCC 1.5°C compatible pathways for the region containing China. Domestically, China has projected a large increase in its carbon sink which approaches the scale assumed in the pathways.1
China's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (ecluding LULUCF)
Data References (ecluding LULUCF)
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China's 1.5°C emissions level focuses only on the median of our set of 24 downscaled national pathways for China. There are some modelled pathways which achieve even deeper reductions than the median. While deeper emissions cuts in China could free up space for other countries to reduce emissions more slowly within a global 1.5°C compatible pathway, this would require an even greater acceleration in the Chinese energy transition. Given the significant acceleration required to reach the median already, we focus on this as our benchmark for China. We are working on an update to our 1.5°C compatible pathways for all countries, including China.
Long term pathway
China submitted a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC in October 2021. This includes targets for carbon neutrality and plans to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in energy consumption to over 80% by 2060.2 To be 1.5°C compatible, China’s CO₂ emissions (excluding LULUCF) would be 97% below 2005 levels by 2060, or 170 MtCO₂/yr by 2060. Remaining emissions would be balanced by the deployment of land sinks or other carbon dioxide removal approaches to get to net zero.
China’s NDC set a target to increase forest stock volume by 6 billion m³ above 2005 levels by 2030. According to the latest National Forest Inventory, as of 2018, it is likely that almost three quarters of this increase has already been achieved.3 In 2018, total LULUCF sinks stood at around 1340 MtCO2/yr corresponds to around 12% of total CO2 emissions that year (excluding LULUCF).4 Therefore China cannot only rely on carbon sinks to achieve net zero. Direct emissions reductions in its energy and industrial sectors will be required to reach net zero.
China's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for China. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2005
Reference year
|
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
8387
|
14467
|
4899 to
6805
|
4088 to
5172
|
3246 to
4277
|
1661 to
2314
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-42 to
-19%
|
-51 to
-38%
|
-61 to
-49%
|
-80 to
-72%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
5742
|
10450
|
2927 to
4638
|
2027 to
3438
|
1367 to
2677
|
399 to
1239
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-49 to
-19%
|
-65 to
-40%
|
-76 to
-53%
|
-93 to
-78%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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