What is Jamaica's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
1.5°C compatible pathways
Jamaica’s updated NDC target covers only the energy and LULUCF sectors. The NDC sets an unconditional emissions reduction target of 25.4% below a business-as-usual scenario (BAU) which corresponds to a reduction of around 1.8 MtCO₂e, to a level of 5.3 MtCO₂e. On the condition that it receives adequate international support, the government commits to an emissions reduction of 28.5% below BAU (a reduction of 2.0 MtCO₂e) by 2030.
There are significant discrepancies in Jamaica’s historical emissions between different datasets, but we have estimated its emissions level to be around 14.0 MtCO₂e in 2030 which represents a decrease of 6% compared to 2015 levels, excluding LULUCF.1
Jamaica’s unconditional emissions reduction target alone is 60% higher than the country’s first NDC which aimed at an emissions reduction of between 1.1 to 1.5 MtCO₂e by 2030. The updated NDC covers more sectors beyond energy and LULUCF within its qualitative commitments to include agriculture and waste sectors.
1.5°C compatible pathways assessed here based on PRIMAP-Hist historical emissions data suggest that the country could reduce its emissions by 33–59% below 2015 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF (or 6-10 MtCO₂e by 2030).
Jamaica's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Long term pathway
Jamaica is currently in the process of developing its long-term low-emission development strategy (LT-LEDS).2,3 Our analysis shows that to align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, the country would need to reduce its total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF by 62–86%, leading to emissions levels of 2-6 MtCO₂eq/yr by 2050. LULUCF has so far not had a noticeable effect on total emissions in the country. Jamaica’s updated NDC, which covers the LULUCF sector, includes a target of achieving a sink of –1 MtCO₂e by 2030. While the target is a step in the right direction, the sink will need to be strengthened and coupled with greater emissions reductions in the power and agricultural sectors.
Jamaica's primary energy mix
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Energy system transformation
Jamaica’s BAU scenario for 2030 estimates that the country’s emissions would be at 8.2 MtCO₂e by 2030.
Jamaica’s current energy mix (as of 2019) consists of 92% fossil fuels and 8% renewable energy, including from both variable and conventional sources (IEA World Energy Balances 2021). While the country will need to sharply increase its renewable sources to be compatible with 1.5°C trajectories, its national energy policy (the Integrated Resources Plan) is currently undergoing an update process where a new commitment of 50% renewable energy by 2030 is expected to be set and formalised, indicating increased ambition.
Jamaica's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Jamaica. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2015
Reference year
|
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
15
|
15
|
8
6 to
10
|
6
3 to
7
|
4
2 to
6
|
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-44%
-59 to
-33%
|
-63%
-80 to
-52%
|
-75%
-86 to
-62%
|
|||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
7
|
8
|
3
2 to
4
|
1
-0 to
2
|
0
-0 to
1
|
2051
2039 to
2065
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-55%
-71 to
-49%
|
-87%
-104 to
-78%
|
-99%
-104 to
-93%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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