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Jamaica In brief

What is Jamaicaʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Economy wide

Our analysis shows that to align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Jamaica would need to reduce its domestic emissions by 44% below 2015 levels excluding LULUCF.

Jamaicaʼs total GHG emissions

excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values
Reference year
−100%−80%−60%−40%−20%0%20%19902010203020502070
Reference year
2015
1.5°C emissions level
−44%
Estimated NDC
−6%
Ambition gap
−39%
  • 1.5°C compatible pathways
  • Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
  • Current policy projections
  • 1.5°C emissions range
  • Historical emissions

2030 NDC

Jamaica’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is significantly more ambitious than the country’s first NDC. However, it only covers the energy and land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sectors. Based on our assumptions, we have estimated Jamaica’s conditional NDC targets in 2030 to be around 14.0 MtCO₂e which corresponds to a decrease of 6% compared to 2015 levels, excluding LULUCF.13

1 Ministry of Energy. National Renewable Energy Policy 2009 – 2030 … Creating a Sustainable Future. Energy Policy. (2010).

2 Cooper, R. Jamaica to run on 50% renewable energy by 2030. Climate Action. (2018).

3 World Bank. Assessment of Jamaica’s Climate Change Mitigation Potential and Implications for its Updated NDC: Sectoral Modelling and Analysis. (2020).

4 Government of Jamaica. Government of Jamaica Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation Biennial Update Report of Jamaica. (2016).

5 World Bank & IBRD. Jamaica’s Long-Term Climate Change Strategy Recommendations. (2021).

6 Gütschow, J., Günther, A. & Pflüger, M. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series v2.3 (1750-2019). (2021)
doi:10.5281/zenodo.5175154.

7 Climate Watch. Jamaica Climate Change Data. Climate Watch. (2022).

8 IEA. World Energy Balances 2019. (2021).

9 Government of Jamaica. Update of Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Jamaica. (2020).

10 OECD. Taxing Energy Use for Sustainable Development – Jamaica. (2018).

11 Government of Jamaica. National Policy for the Trading of Carbon Credits 2010-2030. (2010).

12 NDC Support Facility. Development of 2050 Low Emissions and Climate Resilience Strategy in Jamaica. (2021).

13 Note that there are significant discrepancies between Jamaica’s reported emissions from 2016 in its Biennial Update Report, reflected in the dataset used in this analysis PRIMAP-Hist, and Jamaica’s Long Term Strategy Recommendations based on Climate Watch GHG emissions dataset. As Jamaica’s updated NDC only covers the energy and LULUCF sectors, we have assumed an emissions growth for the IPPU and Waste sectors following the last 10 years trend, and for the agriculture sector, that the share of emissions in 2030 remains the same as the current share in total GHG emissions.

14 Ministry of Science, Energy & Technology. Integrated Resource Plan A 20 Year Roadmap to Sustain and Enable Jamaica’s Electricity Future. (2018).

15 Historical reported emissions for the agriculture sector are deviating significantly from the PRIMAP-Hist – Country reported 2021 dataset to other third party reported GHG – such as the CAIT Climate Watch dataset used in recent studies to inform the development of Jamaica’s Long Term Strategy. On the total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF in 2017 for example, the difference is of around 60%.
In order to assess Jamaica’s NDC we have used the PRIMAP-Hist Country Reported dataset, also used for the estimation of the 1.5°C compatible benchmarks. As Jamaica’s updated NDC covers only the energy sector and the LULUCF sector, we have assumed an emissions growth for the IPPU and Waste sectors following the last 10 years trend, and for the agriculture sector that the share of emissions in 2030 remains the same as the current share over total GHG emissions.

16 Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation. Third National Communication (Issue October).

2050 Ambition

Jamaica is in the process of developing its Long-Term Emissions Reduction and Climate Resilient Strategy (LTS). Our analysis shows that to be aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, the country’s total GHG emissions would have to reduce by 62–86% by 2050 compared to 2015 levels, excluding LULUCF.

Fair share

To decarbonise its economy in line with 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways, Jamaica will need international support, including finance, technology transfer and capacity building.

Sectors

Power

• 1.5°C compatible pathways suggest that the share of renewable energy in Jamaica’s power mix should be between 57% and 72% in 2030.
• Currently, the country targets a 20% renewable energy share by 2030 and is in the process of updating the target to 50% renewable energy share by 2030.1,2

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Footnotes