What is Jamaicaʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Jamaica
Economy wide
Our analysis shows that to align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Jamaica would need to reduce its domestic emissions by 44% below 2015 levels excluding LULUCF.
Jamaicaʼs total GHG emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
Displayed values
Reference year
Reference year
2015
1.5°C emissions level
−44%
1.5°C compatible pathways
Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
Current policy projections
1.5°C emissions range
Historical emissions
2030 NDC
Jamaica’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is significantly more ambitious than the country’s first NDC. However, it only covers the energy and land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sectors. Based on our assumptions, we have estimated Jamaica’s conditional NDC targets in 2030 to be around 14.0 MtCO₂e which corresponds to a decrease of 6% compared to 2015 levels, excluding LULUCF.13
5 World Bank & IBRD. Jamaica’s Long-Term Climate Change Strategy Recommendations. (2021).
6 Gütschow, J., Günther, A. & Pflüger, M. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series v2.3 (1750-2019). (2021)
doi:10.5281/zenodo.5175154.
13 Note that there are significant discrepancies between Jamaica’s reported emissions from 2016 in its Biennial Update Report, reflected in the dataset used in this analysis PRIMAP-Hist, and Jamaica’s Long Term Strategy Recommendations based on Climate Watch GHG emissions dataset. As Jamaica’s updated NDC only covers the energy and LULUCF sectors, we have assumed an emissions growth for the IPPU and Waste sectors following the last 10 years trend, and for the agriculture sector, that the share of emissions in 2030 remains the same as the current share in total GHG emissions.
15 Historical reported emissions for the agriculture sector are deviating significantly from the PRIMAP-Hist – Country reported 2021 dataset to other third party reported GHG – such as the CAIT Climate Watch dataset used in recent studies to inform the development of Jamaica’s Long Term Strategy. On the total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF in 2017 for example, the difference is of around 60%.
In order to assess Jamaica’s NDC we have used the PRIMAP-Hist Country Reported dataset, also used for the estimation of the 1.5°C compatible benchmarks. As Jamaica’s updated NDC covers only the energy sector and the LULUCF sector, we have assumed an emissions growth for the IPPU and Waste sectors following the last 10 years trend, and for the agriculture sector that the share of emissions in 2030 remains the same as the current share over total GHG emissions.
Jamaica is in the process of developing its Long-Term Emissions Reduction and Climate Resilient Strategy (LTS). Our analysis shows that to be aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, the country’s total GHG emissions would have to reduce by 62–86% by 2050 compared to 2015 levels, excluding LULUCF.
Fair share
To decarbonise its economy in line with 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways, Jamaica will need international support, including finance, technology transfer and capacity building.
• 1.5°C compatible pathways suggest that the share of renewable energy in Jamaica’s power mix should be between 57% and 72% in 2030.
• Currently, the country targets a 20% renewable energy share by 2030 and is in the process of updating the target to 50% renewable energy share by 2030.1,2