What is Jamaica's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
Jamaica’s power sector is heavily dominated by fossil fuels which are responsible for 89% of the country’s electricity generation. Oil makes up 68% of the total energy mix, with the remaining 21% coming from fossil gas. The share of renewable energy in Jamaica’s power sector was 11% in 2019.1
1.5°C compatible pathways for Jamaica indicate a need to increase the share of renewable energy from 11% in 2019 to a range of 57–72% of the power mix by 2030. Currently, the country has a target to increase the share of renewable energy to 20% by 2030 and 50% by 2037. These targets are not compatible with the Paris Agreement – to embark on a 1.5°C pathway, Jamaica should triple its 2030 renewable energy target.
To be in line with 1.5°C pathways, Jamaica’s power sector would need to be fully decarbonised between 2038 and 2040, driven by a full phase-out of fossil fuels.
Jamaica's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Jamaica's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Jamaica to be on the order of USD 0.1 to 1 billion by 2030 and 0.2 to 2 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘High CDR’ scenario, which shows comparatively lower annual investments into renewables, has lower levels of electrification and at the global level relies more on carbon capture and storage and negative emissions technologies – which themselves can require high up-front costs and face sustainability constraints.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Jamaica's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Jamaica
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
651
|
164 to
274
|
0 to
3
|
-4 to
0
|
2038 to
2040
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-75 to
-58%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
-101 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
21
|
9 to
12
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
2038 to
2040
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
11
|
57 to
72
|
92 to
100
|
98 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
89
|
28 to
42
|
0 to
3
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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