What is Jamaica's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Current Situation

Emissions profile

In 2019, the energy sector was Jamaica’s highest emitting sector, accounting for 49% of total GHG emissions, followed by the agriculture sector with a share of around 41% of total emissions. Waste and industrial processes play a more marginal role in Jamaica’s domestic emissions.1

As illustrated in Jamaica’s Biennial Update Report (BUR), there was a downward trend in greenhouse gas emissions between 2006 and 2012.2 There is a lack of clarity on emissions from the land use, land use change and forestry sector (LULUCF) which are presented as a sink or a source depending on the dataset. In all cases, however, the LULUCF sector takes up only a small share of the country’s total emissions. In its NDC, the Jamaican government projects the LULUCF sector to be a carbon sink, estimating that it will absorb –1 MtCO₂e by 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario.

Note: there are significant discrepancies between Jamaica’s reported emissions from 2016 in its Biennial Update Report, reflected in the dataset used in this analysis PRIMAP-Hist, and Jamaica’s Long Term Strategy Recommendations based on Climate Watch GHG emissions dataset.3-4

Jamaica's current GHG emissions

MtCO₂e/yr

Energy system

The current main driver of the energy sector emissions is fuel combustion activities, accounting for around 99% of the 2019 energy-related emissions, mostly from the power, industry and transport sectors.5 Decrease in emissions from the mining/bauxite sector was mostly due to the impact of global economic downturn resulting in lower productivity of the industry.

In 2010, Jamaica relied on imported petroleum for 91% of its energy needs. The National Energy Policy 2009–2030 lays out plans to promote renewable energy and fuel diversification.6 The policy includes a target of increasing the renewable energy share to 30% by 2030 and an overall target of 20% of energy from renewables, with estimates showing that it could increase to 50%. In 2019, around 11% of electricity generation came from renewable energy sources.7 In 2019, oil was the primary energy source, with an 82% share, followed by gas, biomass, coal and non-biomass renewables.

The energy sector faces many challenges in reducing GHG emissions largely due to an inefficient power sector.8 The government is taking action to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions, including through the National Energy Policy 2009–2030.9 In 2009, however, the government opted for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as the alternative for energy diversification.

Targets and commitments

Economy-wide targets

Target type

Base year emissions target

NDC target

Unconditional NDC target

  • 25.4% reduction relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) emissions scenario for 2030 (reduction of 1.83MtCO₂e for a target emissions level of 5.37MtCO₂e in 2030).10

Conditional NDC target

  • 28.5% reduction relative to a business-as-usual emissions scenario for 2030 (reduction of 2.05MtCO₂e for a target emissions level of 5.15MtCO₂e in 2030)

Market mechanisms

Jamaica does not have an explicit carbon tax but the government collects energy taxes for the consumption of gasoline, diesel, kerosene, fuel oil, LPG and natural gas under the National Policy of Trading of Carbon Credits 2010–2030.11,12

Long-term target

Jamaica is currently developing a Long-Term Emissions Reduction and Climate Resilient Strategy (LTS) for 2050.

Sectoral targets

Energy

Emissions reduction target:

  • At least 20% of the energy supply to come from renewable sources by 2030.13

Power

  • Jamaica’s Integrated Resource Plan foresees the share of renewable energy in electricity generation to be 31% in 2030 and 49% in 2037.14
    Note: the Integrated Resource Plan is currently being updated.

Industry

  • Increased cogeneration efficiency: “efficient combined heat and power steam generators are deployed for alumina production, gradually increasing CHP efficiency for the industry to 90% in 2030.”15

Transport

  • Introduction of 136 liquified natural gas-fuelled public transport buses serving St. James Parish and Montego Bay by 2025.

Buildings

  • All schools and hospitals to change from linear, fluorescent light bulbs to energy-efficient lighting by 2030.

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