What is Jamaica's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
In 2019, the transport sector was responsible for the largest share of total final energy consumption in Jamaica with a share of 40.5%, and the third-largest emitting sector.
Jamaica's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible pathways suggest that the sector would have to decarbonise between 2036 and 2050, with direct CO2 emissions reaching zero by 2050 at the latest. Emissions from energy demand would have to peak before 2030 and then rapidly decline. Similarly, the emissions intensity of energy demand would have to peak no later than 2030 to be in line with 1.5°C compatible pathways.
In 2019, approximately 96% of the transport sector's energy came from fossil fuel sources and the sector was the Jamaican economy's biggest consumer of oil products. The share of biofuels in transport energy consumption was around 4% in 2019.
Road transport is the biggest source of emissions within the transport sector in Jamaica. However, its NOx emissions declined by around 20% between 2006 and 2012 partly due to a slow but steady decline in the consumption of fossil fuels and increasing electrification. The carbon intensity of energy consumption in road transport was 67.7gCO2/MJ and it has been relatively stable at that level. The aviation and shipping sector emissions have also reduced, by 55% and 66% respectively between 2006 and 2012 respectively, although the shipping and aviation sectors are smaller than road transport in absolute terms. The energy usage within the aviation sector has fluctuated, largely in part as a response to the tourism industry.
Since 2021, the government has rolled out plans to incentivise the uptake of electric vehicles, including by building 10 public charging stations. All scenarios analysed here suggest that the transport sector needs to ramp up electrification and use electricity, hydrogen and biomass as its primary fuel source to decarbonise in line with 1.5°C compatible pathways. There is increasing acknowledgement that electrification of the transport sector is a necessary step in sector-wide decarbonisation.
Jamaica's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Jamaica
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
2
|
0 to
2
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
2036 to
2050
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-90 to
-39%
|
-97 to
-75%
|
-98 to
-97%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
0
|
3 to
12
|
9 to
35
|
28 to
64
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
4
|
12 to
63
|
30 to
61
|
25 to
63
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
1 to
22
|
7 to
58
|
20 to
62
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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