What is Kazakhstan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Kazakhstan’s industrial sector, and consequentially its emissions, sharply contracted with the loss of Soviet demand. Following a transition period, Kazakhstan’s economy and industries started to recover around 1999. Kazakhstan’s top industries are metallurgy of ferrous and non-ferrous metals, hydrocarbon production, textiles, chemicals and pharmaceuticals and fertilizers.1
Kazakhstan's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Energy-related emissions from Kazakhstan’s industry sector have fluctuated significantly, increasing 44% from 2000 to 2019. Fossil fuels account for the majority of the final energy mix, supplying 65% of Kazakhstan’s industry sector energy needs in 2017. While the share of coal has been declining, it still supplied 28% of the mix in 2017. The supply of electricity in the industry sector has remained fairly constant since the mid-2000s.
Analysed 1.5°C compatible pathways show the industry sector’s energy mix is decarbonised by 2047 at the latest. This is driven largely by higher electrification rates in most pathways, ramping up to 50 to 67% by mid-century. Pathways that show lower electrification rates have higher adoption of hydrogen and heat. Kazakhstan’s Doctrine to achieve carbon neutrality does not show a reduction of industrial energy emissions in line with our 1.5°C compatible benchmark, with industrial energy emissions peaking in 2030 and declining 80% below 1990 levels by 2060 in its carbon neutrality scenario.2
Kazakhstan’s process-related industry emissions have also increased, 65% since 2000, though have slightly declined from 2017-2019. Analysed 1.5°C pathways show Kazakhstan’s process-related emissions declining immediately to be almost completely phased out as early as 2040.
Kazakhstan’s emissions trading scheme (ETS) covers the country’s main industries (extractive, oil and gas mining, metallurgy, chemical, and processing); however, the ETS only covers CO₂ emissions and previous phases of the scheme have had limited impact.3,4
Kazakhstan's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Kazakhstan's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, shares of electricity, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Kazakhstan
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised industry sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
38
|
10 to
16
|
1 to
6
|
-2 to
1
|
2038 to
2047
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-75 to
-59%
|
-98 to
-85%
|
-106 to
-99%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
29
|
30 to
36
|
44 to
45
|
50 to
67
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogren and biomass
per cent
|
29
|
37 to
58
|
50 to
69
|
74 to
81
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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