What is Kazakhstan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Kazakhstan’s emissions dropped by about half from 1990 to 1999 following independence from the Soviet Union.1 These changes were overwhelmingly energy sector emissions, which make up about 81% of Kazakhstan’s greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF. Emissions from power and heat make up the largest share at about one third of Kazakhstan’s emissions.2
The drop and rebound in energy emissions was largely driven by changes in demand, rather than changes in the energy mix, which continues to be dominated by unabated fossil fuels at around 98-99% of the primary energy supply. By 2018, emissions had nearly rebounded to pre-independence levels.
Agriculture, industry and waste emissions have followed the same pattern, generally decreasing from 1990 to 1999 before rebounding. Agriculture is the second largest source of emissions after energy, and has increased by 28% since 1999 – relatively slowly. In comparison, industrial process emissions, which account for a much lower fraction of overall emissions, have jumped by 115% since 1999.
Kazakhstan's current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector.
Data References
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Energy system
Primary energy is almost entirely supplied by fossil fuels: 47% from coal, 28% from fossil gas and 24% from oil. Since 2010, the shares of coal and gas have declined, largely replaced with oil. Non-biomass renewables have increased, but marginally, only accounting for 1.5% of primary energy.
Kazakhstan’s power mix is also dependent on fossil fuels, with coal generating 69% of electricity and natural gas generating 20% in 2019. The remaining generation is from non-biomass renewables, primarily hydropower.
In 2013, Kazakhstan adopted its Concept for Kazakhstan’s Transition to Green Economy, developed by the Ministry of Environmental Protection and UNDP as a strategic policy document, with targets for renewable energy, gas, and energy efficiency.3 The Concept targets a 30% share of electricity generation from alternative and renewable energy sources, including nuclear, by 2030, and a 50% share by 2050. The concept also foresees an expansion of natural gas to 25% by 2030 and 30% by 2050. A faster phase-out of fossil fuels and renewables expansion will be needed to align with the 1.5°C pathways assessed here.
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
Base year emissions target
NDC target
Unconditional NDC Target:
- As expressed by the country: 15% below 1990 by 2030 (incl. LULUCF).
- Re-expressed excluding LULUCF below selected baseline: 14% below 1990 levels by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).4
Conditional NDC Target:
- 25% below 1990 by 2030 (incl. LULUCF).
- Re-expressed excluding LULUCF below selected baseline: 24% below 1990 levels by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).5
Market mechanisms
- Kazakhstan 2016 NDC: “Kazakhstan supports inclusion of market based mechanisms in the 2015 agreement, and the opportunity to use carbon units recognised by the UNFCCC. Kazakhstan retains the option of using market based mechanisms under the UNFCCC. Kazakhstan will consider adequately discounting international units for compliance to ensure a contribution to net global emission reductions.”6
Long-term target
- Kazakhstan President Tokayev announced Kazakhstan’s intention of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 at the 2020 UN Climate Ambition Summit.7
Sectoral targets
Energy
- Reduction of energy intensity of GDP from 2008 level of 25% by 2020, 30% by 2030 and 50% by 2050.
Power
- 30% of generation from alternative and renewable energy sources (including nuclear) by 2030.
- 50% of generation from alternative and renewable energy sources (including nuclear) by 2030.
- 25% of generation from natural gas by 2030.
- 30% of generation from natural gas by 2050.
- 15% reduction in CO₂ from electricity production below 2012 levels by 2030.
- 40% reduction in CO₂ from electricity production below 2012 levels by 2050.8
Waste
- 40% share of recycled waste by 2030 and 50% by 2050.9
LULUCF
- Plant two billion trees by 2026.10