What is Kazakhstan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
Under Paris Agreement compatible pathways, Kazakhstan’s power sector carbon intensity declines from 490 gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to 30-200 gCO₂/kWh by 2030.
This could be achieved with a rapid shift away from Kazakhstan’s fossil fuel reliance, decreasing unabated fossil fuel combustion from 89% of the power mix in 2019 to 6-28% by 2030. Unabated coal, which accounted for 69% of the mix in 2019, is phased out by 2030 and unabated gas drops from 20% to 4-8% by 2030. This phase out of fossil fuels would need to be enabled by a high uptake of renewable energy from 1% of the power mix in 2019 to 70-94% by 2030.
To meet its carbon neutrality goal, Kazakhstan’s Doctrine to Achieve Carbon Neutrality Until 2060 indicates fossil fuels need to decrease to 56% of the power mix by 2030, with CCS not deployed until after 2030.1 This puts the Doctrine’s targeted unabated fossil fuel share well above our 1.5°C compatible benchmark. Coal is reduced to one-quarter of power generation in this strategy by 2030. This is largely replaced with renewables which increase to 44%, well below our benchmark, with gas also increasing to 30% by 2030.
Recent remarks by the government claim that Kazakhstan needs to reduce the share of coal generation in the power mix to 40% by 2030 through the natural decommissioning of capacities, but this is less ambitious than the carbon neutrality scenario in the Doctrine.2 Analysed 1.5°C pathways indicate a more rapid phase out of coal beyond business-as-usual retirements is necessary, and that coal will need to be phased about by 2030.
Kazakhstan's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
Kazakhstan’s power sector reaches carbon neutrality between 2040 and 2046 in analysed 1.5°C compatible pathways. This is driven by a rapid phase-out of unabated coal by 2030 and unabated gas between 2036 and 2046. All unabated fossil fuels drop from 89% of the power mix in 2019 to 0-2% by 2040 and 0% by 2050 in these pathways. This would be supported by a transition to 100% renewable energy by 2050.
Kazakhstan’s Doctrine to Achieve Carbon Neutrality Until 2060 indicates fossil fuels need to decrease to 18% by 2050 to meet the carbon neutrality target; however, this assumes CCS will capture nearly all emissions from thermal power plants by 2060.3 CCS does not allow for the full decarbonisation of plants and has high upfront costs. The Doctrine sees a slower coal phase-out than in analysed 1.5°C pathways – by about 20 years – and an increase in gas use that is not consistent with the rapid decarbonisation of the power sector required to be 1.5°C compatible.
Kazakhstan's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Kazakhstan to be on the order of USD 1 to 9 billion by 2030 and USD 1 to 10 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘High CDR’ scenario, which shows comparatively lower annual investments into renewables, has lower levels of electrification and at the global level relies more on carbon capture and storage and negative emissions technologies – which themselves can require high up-front costs and face sustainability constraints.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Kazakhstan's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Kazakhstan
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
490
|
33 to
196
|
0 to
11
|
-1 to
0
|
2040 to
2046
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-93 to
-60%
|
-100 to
-98%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
69
|
2 to
3
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
20
|
4 to
8
|
0 to
2
|
0 to
0
|
2036 to
2046
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
11
|
70 to
94
|
98 to
99
|
100 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
89
|
6 to
28
|
0 to
2
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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