What is United Arab Emirates's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power Sector in 2030
Power generation in the UAE is currently dominated by fossil gas. In recent years, the number of solar PV and concentrated solar power (CSP) installations have increased rapidly, reaching a capacity of 3.7 GW in 2023.1 In April 2021, the first nuclear power plant in the UAE started operations, a first step in reaching its target of a 6% share of the electricity mix by 2050.2
Several projects are underway to expand waste-to-energy plants with Ruwais (230 MW), Warsan (171 MW), the TAQA project (100MW), and Sharjah-1 (30 MW) totalling a capacity of 531MW.3
However, the government has also invested in transitioning existing coal power plants to use fossil gas. Switching from coal to gas reduces the carbon intensity of power generation, but still represents a long term investment lock-in of fossil fuels which is not compatible with the 1.5°C temperature limit.
Our analysis shows that the share of renewable energy generation would need to reach 59-79% by 2030, rising to almost 100% by 2050. Fossil gas use accounted for 97% of power generation in 2019 and needs to be cut by roughly three quarters by 2030 and phased out completely by the early 2040s. Phasing out gas from the power sector would reduce the sector’s emissions intensity by over two-thirds by 2030, with full decarbonisation occurring between 2040 and 2043.
United Arab Emirates' power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
A power sector gas phase-out between 2040 and 2044 is necessary for the UAE to embark on a Paris Agreement compatible pathway. Emissions intensity of the UAE power grid would reach zero around this time as gas is replaced by renewable sources.4
Some scenarios show emissions intensity of electricity generation becoming negative (reaching -21 gCO2/kWh by 2050), mostly due to bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Delaying the phase-out of fossil fuels in the power sector would require the UAE to rely more heavily on carbon dioxide removal technologies in the future, which is inherently risky due to BECCS being unproven at scale.
United Arab Emirates' power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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United Arab Emirates' renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for United Arab Emirates
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
505
|
92 to
177
|
0 to
8
|
-21 to
-4
|
2040 to
2043
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-82 to
-65%
|
-100 to
-98%
|
-104 to
-101%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
97
|
21 to
38
|
0 to
2
|
0 to
0
|
2040 to
2044
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
3
|
59 to
79
|
97 to
98
|
98 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
97
|
21 to
39
|
0 to
2
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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