What is United Arab Emirates's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
1.5°C compatible pathways
The UAE’s 2022 update of its second NDC set an emissions reduction target of 31% below a BAU scenario (incl. LULUCF), which is stronger than the preceding target of 23.5% below BAU.1 This reduction would lead to emissions of around 214 MtCO2e/yr (excl. LULUCF), or17% below 2015 levels, in 2030.2
This target, if met, would not be compatible with the Paris Agreement. Our analysis shows that the UAE would need to reduce its GHG emissions to 95-116 MtCO2e (excl. LULUCF) by 2030. This represents a 55-63% reduction below 2015 levels by 2030. The majority of emissions reductions should take place in the energy sector, primarily the power, industry and transport sectors.
United Arab Emirates' total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Long term pathway
The UAE intends to achieve net zero GHG emissions by 2050.3 To be aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, the UAE’s GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) would need to decline to 22–32 MtCO2e/yr, or 88–92% below 2015 levels by 2050.4 This means that the UAE’s current 2050 target is 1.5°C compatible. Achieving this goal would require stringent and ambitious policies in the power, industry and transport sectors and the halting of oil and gas exploration.
The UAE will need to rely on carbon removals, either technological or from the land sector, to reach net zero emissions. Our analysis shows that the power sector could contribute negative emissions of up to -3 MtCO2e/yr in 2050, mostly based on bioenergy from carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Higher shares of renewables would allow the country to rely less on CDR technologies, which are not yet available at scale and are very expensive.
United Arab Emirates' primary energy mix
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Energy system transformation
The two main sources of GHG emissions in the UAE are fuel combustion in the energy sector (industry, electricity generation and transport) and the extraction of oil and gas which releases large amounts of fugitive emissions. Clear and stringent government policies will be critical to transform these sectors.
To be compatible with a 1.5°C pathway, the UAE would need to reduce the share of fossil fuels in primary energy supply from almost 100% in 2019 to between 10-33% by 2050. To realise this transition, the share of renewable energy in the UAE’s power sector would need to increase to 28-78% by 2050.
Higher shares of renewables will reduce the need to develop carbon dioxide removal technologies which are at present prohibitively expensive and not yet available at scale. Our analysis shows that the use of carbon removal technologies could start from 2030, reaching up to a 4% share of primary energy by 2050.
United Arab Emirates' total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for United Arab Emirates. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2015
Reference year
|
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
257
|
215
|
105
95 to
116
|
54
40 to
58
|
29
22 to
32
|
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-59%
-63 to
-55%
|
-79%
-84 to
-77%
|
-89%
-92 to
-88%
|
|||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
211
|
167
|
94
73 to
106
|
37
17 to
51
|
10
4 to
31
|
2067
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-55%
-65 to
-50%
|
-83%
-92 to
-76%
|
-95%
-98 to
-85%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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