What is United Arab Emirates's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Transport sector analysis was carried out after the release of the UAE’s 2023 NDC. The information in this section is therefore based on the more recent 2023 NDC.
Transport emissions in the UAE increased more than threefold between 1990 and 2019, from 11 MtCO2e to 36 MtCO2e. Our analysis of 1.5°C compatible scenarios shows that transport emissions should decline to around 20-24 MtCO2e in 2030, and 3-10 MtCO2e in 2050, reaching net zero between 2055-2067.
United Arab Emirates' energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) and use of renewable fuels are two key measures to decarbonise the transport sector. In 1.5°C compatible scenarios, the share of electricity in transport energy demand increases from 0% in 2019 to 2-12% by 2030 and up to 62% by 2050. The share of hydrogen in the transport sector reaches up to 16% by 2030 and as high as 57% by 2050. Similarly, the share of liquid biofuels reaches up to 3% by 2030 and 7-29% by 2050.
The UAE intends to reduce transport emissions by 1% by 2030.1 To be 1.5°C aligned, transport emissions would need to be 33-45% lower than 2019 levels.
Many of the measures promoting EV uptake come from the Emirate of Dubai, where a range of initiatives exist aimed at expanding charging infrastructure.18 The UAE government could adopt measures to facilitate the phasing out of fossil fuel vehicles and policies that support EVs. For example, the low cost of fuel in the UAE makes it harder for EVs to compete in the market. Stronger support for EVs as well as greater investment in public transport would allow the UAE to align itself with Paris Agreement compatible pathways.
United Arab Emirates' transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for United Arab Emirates
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
36
|
20 to
24
|
12 to
15
|
3 to
10
|
2055 to
2067
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-45 to
-33%
|
-66 to
-57%
|
-93 to
-72%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
0
|
2 to
12
|
17 to
39
|
43 to
62
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
0
|
1 to
3
|
7 to
7
|
11 to
29
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
16
|
4 to
47
|
25 to
57
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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