What is United Arab Emirates's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Energy overview and main policy gaps

The UAE is heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Fossil gas and oil formed 66% and 32%, respectively, of primary energy supply in 2019.¹1 Residential and commercial buildings are the main consumers of electricity in the UAE. The largest energy consumers are the power (32%), industry (24%) and transport (15%) sectors.

As of 2019, electricity generation in the UAE was dominated by gas (97%), with a minimal share of oil (0.6%) and renewables (under 3%).²2 In recent years, the number of solar installations (both PV and concentrated solar power technologies) has grown, reaching 2.6 GW in 2021.³3

Several waste-to-energy plants are in operation and plan to contribute 300 MW,⁴4 however current projects under development are projected to reach an even higher capacity of 531 MW.⁵5

The UAE aims to reduce its energy sector’s carbon intensity from 0.556 kgCO₂ in 2021 to 0.27 kgCO₂ in 2030. This will mainly be achieved by increasing the share of renewable and nuclear energy to 30% of the total energy mix by 2030.⁶6 The country started commercial operation of Barakah nuclear power plant, the first of its kind in the Arab world, in April 2021.⁷7

Targets and commitments

Economy-Wide Targets

Target Type

Baseline scenario target

NDC Target

• 31% below business as usual by 2030 (incl. LULUCF)
• 17% below 2015 levels by 2030 (excl. LULUCF)

The UAE updated its NDC in 2020 and submitted an updated second NDC in 2022. This sets updated emissions reduction targets for the electricity generation, transport, industry and waste sectors.

Sector Coverage

☒ Agriculture ☒ Waste ☒ Industry (processes) ☒ Energy ☒ LULUCF

Gas Coverage

☒ CO2 ☒CH4 ☒ N2O ☒SF6 ☒HFCs ☒ NF3 ☐ non-specified

Market Mechanisms

The United Arab Emirates intends to meet its NDC objectives primarily through domestic efforts. However, the government has indicated in the NDC that it may also consider partially using voluntary cooperation under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.

Long-term target

The UAE has announced a net zero target for 2050 but has not yet submitted a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC. It has adopted a 2017-2050 National Climate Plan and a 2050 Energy Strategy, but the strategies lack detailed mitigation activities across sectors and consistently at a federal level.

Sectoral Targets

Energy (general)

• Reducing final energy demand by 40% relative to a business-as-usual scenario by 2050.

• Increase the share of renewable and nuclear energy to 30% of the total energy mix by 2030.

• The UAE has launched several measures under the National Water and Energy Demand Side Management Programme, with an economy wide target to reduce energy consumption by 40% by 2050 in industry, built environment, transport and agriculture.

Power

• Achieving a 50% share of alternative energy, with 44% from renewable and 6% from nuclear energy in installed power capacity mix by 2050.

• 54% reduction in total emissions of electricity generation activities by 2030 compared to BAU.

Transport

• 14% reduction in total emissions from the transport sector by 2030 compared to BAU.

Industry

• 19% reduction in total emissions from industrial energy production by 2030 compared to BAU.

Waste

• 26% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to BAU.