Ambition Gap

Raising ambition

India’s unconditional target in its 2022 NDC aims to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP to 45% below 2005 levels (excluding LULUCF). However, this target is projected to result in India’s absolute emissions increasing by at least 169% above 2005 levels by 2030, to 4987 MtCO₂e.¹

Additionally, India's conditional NDC target, which focuses on achieving 50% cumulative installed electricity capacity from non-fossil fuel-based sources by 2030, fails to drive any additional emissions reductions beyond what can be achieved under current policies. India has already achieved its 50% non-fossil capacity and is on track to achieve more than 60% non-fossil capacity by 2030 under current policies. Hence substantial improvement is possible, with international support, to get onto a 1.5°C compatible pathway. To align with the 1.5°C warming limit, total domestic emissions excluding LULUCF would be limited to 47% above 2005 levels in 2030.²

When including LULUCF, India’s total emissions under 1.5°C compatible pathways would reach 2080 MtCO₂e by 2030 (25% increase compared to 2005) and 1737 MtCO₂e by 2035 (4% above 2005). India would need to strengthen its 2030 conditional target from its 2022 NDC and submit a 2035 target in line with these pathways to be 1.5°C compatible. With international support, India will be able to implement its domestic emissions pathway.³

Many of our downscaled indicative 1.5°C LULUCF pathways for Asian countries show a large growth in carbon sinks in 2030. This is because many of the pathways assessed by the IPCC’s AR6 assessment show a similar growth in carbon sinks for the Asia region as a whole. If this growth in carbon sink is not achieved, then further emissions reductions would need to be achieved elsewhere. See our full analysis on India’s LULUCF pathways here.

India's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2005
2010

Target Year

2030
2035

LULUCF

Excluded
Included

*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
- Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker.
- NDC incl. LULUCF: India assumptions

Long term pathway

India aims to achieve net zero by 2070.⁴ In 2022, India submitted its first Long-Term Low Carbon Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) as a guideline to achieve this goal.⁵ The target covers all key sectors of the economy, though it is unclear if the target covers all GHGs. The strategy identifies sector specific priorities for the power, industry, transport, buildings, and urban sectors. However, it lacks precise policies for achieving net zero beyond existing initiatives. Coal continues to be a part of India’s long-term strategy.

1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that India needs to reduce its GHG emissions to 26% below 2005 levels by 2050, equivalent to 1373 MtCO₂e/year (excluding LULUCF). These emissions will need to be balanced by the deployment of land sinks or other carbon dioxide removal approaches to get to net zero. In its 2022 NDC, India has pledged an additional cumulative LULUCF carbon sink of 2.5-3 GtCO₂ by 2030. Tracking of this target is difficult as the 2022 NDC does not provide any base year for this sink capacity. A recent study, however, finds that this pledge largely overestimates India’s carbon sink potential from forest restoration and available land.⁶^,⁷

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2024. Last inventory year: 2022.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for India. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2005
2010

LULUCF

Excluded
Included

Indicator	2005 Reference year	2023	2030	2035	2040	2050
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	1856	3724	1768 to 2858	1491 to 2236	1360 to 1901	742 to 1373
Relative to reference year in %			-5 to 54%	-20 to 20%	-27 to 2%	-60 to -26%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	1116	2680	875 to 1806	641 to 1247	512 to 990	-49 to 507
Relative to reference year in %			-22 to 62%	-43 to 12%	-54 to -11%	-104 to -55%
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	1666		1149 to 2080	919 to 1737	810 to 1357	369 to 975
Relative to reference year in %			-31 to 25%	-45 to 4%	-51 to -19%	-78 to -41%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	925		-618 to -779	-572 to -499	-550 to -544	-374 to -398
Relative to reference year in %			-167 to -184%	-162 to -154%	-159 to -159%	-140 to -143%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

Methodology
- How are emissions benchmarks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker.
- Download data as CSV

Climate Action Tracker, “India - September 2025,” 2025 ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “Climate Action Tracker-India (November 2023 Update),” July 6, 2023 ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “Climate Action Tracker-India (November 2023 Update).” ↩
MoEFCC, India’s Long-Term Strategy for Low Carbon Development (LT-LEDS) (2022) ↩
MoEFCC, India’s Long-Term Strategy for Low Carbon Development (LT-LEDS). ↩
Aditi Tandon, “India’s Climate Mitigation Potential in Forests Overestimated, Finds Study,” Mongabay-India, February 16, 2022 ↩
Trisha Gopalakrishna et al., “Existing Land Uses Constrain Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Forest Restoration in India,” Conservation Letters 15, no. 2 (2022): e12867 ↩

What is India's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Raising ambition

India's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

India's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Cookie settings

Statistics

Google