What is India's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
Raising ambition
India’s unconditional target in its 2022 NDC aims to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP to 45% below 2005 levels (excluding LULUCF). However, this target is projected to result in an increase of at least 156% in India's emissions from 2005 levels by 2030 to 4632 MtCO2e.1
Additionally, India's conditional NDC target, which focuses on achieving 50% cumulative installed electricity capacity from non-fossil fuel-based sources by 2030, fails to drive any additional emissions reductions beyond what can be achieved under the current policies. India is already on track to achieve 50% non-fossil capacity by 2030 under current policies, hence substantial improvement is possible, with international support, to get onto a 1.5°C compatible pathway. To align with the 1.5°C warming limit, total domestic emissions excluding LULUCF would be limited to 47% above 2005 levels in 2030.2
When including LULUCF, India’s total emissions under 1.5°C compatible pathways would fall to 2092 MtCO2e, or 15% above 2005 levels by 2035. India would need to strengthen its 2030 conditional target from its 2022 NDC and submit a 2035 target in line with these pathways to be 1.5°C compatible.
Many of our downscaled indicative 1.5°C LULUCF pathways for Asian countries show a large growth in carbon sinks in 2030. This is because many of the pathways assessed by the IPCC’s AR6 assessment show a similar growth in carbon sinks for the Asia region as a whole. If this growth in carbon sink is not achieved, then further emissions reductions would need to be achieved elsewhere.
With International support, India will be able to implement its domestic emissions pathway and close the gap between its fair share level and domestic emissions level.3
India's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (ecluding LULUCF)
Data References (ecluding LULUCF)
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Long term pathway
India is aiming to be net zero by 2070.4 In 2022, India submitted its first Long-Term Low Carbon Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) as a guideline to achieve this goal.5 The target covers all key sectors of the economy, however, it is unclear if the target covers all GHGs. The strategy identifies sector specific priorities for the power, industry, transport, buildings, and urban sectors. However, it lacks precise policies for achieving net zero beyond existing initiatives. Coal continues to be part of India’s long-term strategy.
1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that India needs to reduce its GHG emissions to 27% below 2005 levels by 2050, equivalent to 959 MtCO₂e/year (excluding LULUCF). These emissions will need to be balanced by the deployment of land sinks or other carbon dioxide removal approaches to get to net zero. In its 2022 NDC, India has pledged an additional cumulative LULUCF carbon sink of 2.5-3 GtCO₂ by 2030. A recent study however finds that this pledge largely overestimates India’s carbon sink potential from forest restoration and available land.6,7
India's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for India. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2005
Reference year
|
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
1811
|
3377
|
1683 to
2671
|
1401 to
2092
|
1290 to
1791
|
959 to
1325
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-7 to
47%
|
-23 to
16%
|
-29 to
-1%
|
-47 to
-27%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
1106
|
2411
|
870 to
1778
|
638 to
1233
|
506 to
967
|
-48 to
513
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-21 to
61%
|
-42 to
11%
|
-54 to
-13%
|
-104 to
-54%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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