What is India's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Decarbonising the power sector
India’s power sector is heavily reliant on coal, which accounted for 74% of electricity generation in 2023 (up from 72% in 2021).1 Across all analysed pathways, the power sector starts to decarbonise rapidly, with emissions intensity declining from as early as 2025.
India's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.
Methodology
Data References
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This requires a significant scale up of renewables in the power mix. The Deep Electrification pathway shows the share of renewables increase from 22% in 2021 to 74% in 2030, before reaching 94% in 2040. Due to the rising share of renewables, coal is effectively phased out by 2035. Other pathways show minimum renewables share of 68% by 2030, while gas is essentially phased out across all pathways by around 2040.
In its recent electricity plan, India aims to increase its renewable energy capacity to 44% by the year 2031-32. At the same time, it plans to substantially increase coal capacity between 2027 and 2032.2 There is also no indication of plans to shut down any coal power plant before 2030.3
With extreme heat pushing electricity demand to record highs, it is important to formulate a long-term renewable energy target which accounts for growing energy demand in the short term.
Considering the young age of India’s current coal fleet, it is also crucial to formulate a sustainable and inclusive strategy for the early retirement of existing coal capacity. Rapid expansion of renewable energy and storage solutions coupled with adequate grid infrastructure can ensure that energy demand is met sustainably.
India's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Power capacity investments
Across all analysed 1.5°C pathways, annual investments in wind and solar in India increase to USD 60–99 bn between 2026–2030 and USD 55-88 bn between 2031–2040. The Deep Electrification pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase in electrification of end-use sectors, growing energy demand and expansion of electricity access.
India’s historical energy investments show a strong push toward renewable energy but also a continued reliance on fossil fuels. Solar and wind investments reached USD 12.2 bn in the financial year of 2023-2024, while coal and oil investments amounted to USD 7.2 bn.4 Going forward, around USD 50 bn has already been committed for coal power between 2020 and 2030.5
Renewable energy auctions in India have become a pivotal mechanism for attracting investments in the sector by providing competitive pricing and transparent bidding processes. These auctions facilitate large-scale procurement of solar and wind power, driving down costs and enabling private players to invest in renewable projects, thereby accelerating the growth of clean energy capacity in the country.6
India has undertaken significant initiatives to scale up investment in solar and wind power projects, introducing the Production Linked Incentives Scheme in 2020 to boost domestic manufacturing of solar modules, batteries and other clean energy equipment. It has recently extended funding for offshore wind projects of up to USD 890 million.7,8
India's renewable electricity investments and capacities
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Average annual investments in power sector renewable electricity capacity and cumulative installed power capacities across time under 1.5°C compatible pathways downscaled at country levels.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for India
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
714
|
179 to
231
|
11 to
29
|
8 to
12
|
0 to
5
|
2043 to
2050
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-75 to
-68%
|
-98 to
-96%
|
-99 to
-98%
|
-100 to
-99%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
72
|
17 to
23
|
0 to
2
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
4
|
4 to
6
|
2 to
4
|
2 to
3
|
0 to
1
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
21
|
68 to
74
|
89 to
93
|
92 to
94
|
92 to
96
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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