What is India's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Decarbonising the industry sector
In 2023, industry was the second largest emitting sector after the power sector, accounting for 26% of total emissions (excluding LULUCF). Energy demand was responsible for around two-thirds of industrial emissions, while process emissions contributed one-third.1,2,3 Emissions are mostly driven by the petrochemicals, iron and steel, cement, and pulp and paper industries. In 2022, the industry sector’s main fuel sources were coal (37%) and biomass (29%).4
India's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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All 1.5°C aligned pathways assessed here show energy-related industry CO2 emissions halving by 2035 compared to 2022 levels. The Deep Electrification pathway leads to rapid short-term reductions in energy-related CO2 emissions through energy efficiency measures and increasing electrification to 48% in 2030, compared to 19% in 2022.5
India’s industrial decarbonisation can be fast achieved from electrifying low/medium-temperature heat and cross-cutting utilities, expanding EAF-based steel with green power, and material/feedstock shifts (clinker substitution, green H₂ for DRI). High-temperature, process-emissions-heavy segments (cement, some petrochemicals) will still need hydrogen/electric high-temp technologies as clean power and a strong carbon market intervention.
An amendment to the Energy Conservation Act 2022 mandates non-fossil fuel usage in heavy industries to reach around 25%, although the draft rules do not state a target date.6 The Act also lays the groundwork for a potential domestic carbon market. The Bureau of Energy Efficiency is working towards developing a carbon market based on GHG emissions intensity rather than an absolute cap.
The National Green Hydrogen Mission is an important strategy for industrial decarbonisation. The policy aims to produce 5 million tonnes of green hydrogen annually by 2030 to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels.7 According to a recent assessment, the adoption of domestically produced green hydrogen has a cumulative mitigation potential of 3.6 GtCO2 by 2050 compared to the use of grey hydrogen.8
Under all 1.5°C compatible pathways, process emissions see a consistent decline starting from 2025-2030, reaching levels of 57-118 MtCO₂e by 2050, down from 320 MtCO₂e in 2023.
India's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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India's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for India
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Industry sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
642
|
447 to
621
|
284 to
344
|
181 to
198
|
96 to
119
|
2049
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-30 to
-3%
|
-56 to
-46%
|
-72 to
-69%
|
-85 to
-81%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
19
|
36 to
48
|
46 to
58
|
49 to
66
|
58 to
83
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
%
|
47
|
46 to
57
|
69 to
74
|
82 to
85
|
88 to
94
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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