What is India's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Decarbonising the transport sector
In 2021, the transport sector consumed 15% of total final energy.1 Under all analysed pathways, the emissions intensity of India’s transport sector starts to decline after 2025, although total emissions continue growing until the mid-2030s.
India's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The Deep Electrification pathway – which best captures the potential for electrification of the sector – shows the greatest reduction in emissions intensity due to a high share of renewables (47% in 2040 and 76% in 2050), which could be driven by such as electric vehicle (EV) subsidies and a rollout of charging infrastructure.2 India has implemented several policy measures to accelerate the adoption of EVs by offering subsidies to lower the initial purchase cost of EVs.
Since 2020, EV sales in India have seen a rapid increase. Notably, half of two and three wheelers’ sales were electric and in 2023-24 the share of electric two-wheeler sales was 79%. India is also actively expanding its charging infrastructure to support this transition.3 India has one of the longest rail networks in world and by 2023 had electrified 45% of its network, far ahead of many developed countries.4 Indian Railways announced plans to achieve net zero emissions by 2030.
India has set ambitious targets for 2030, including achieving a 30% share of EV sales in the private car market, a 70% share in commercial vehicles, a 40% share in buses, and an 80% share in two and three-wheeled vehicles. In addition, the government intends to mandate all two-wheelers to be electric by 2026 –ahead of the timeline established at COP26.
While these pathways see some remaining oil in the mix by 2050, it could be further reduced by the introduction of synthetic fuels, which are not modelled in these pathways. They are however associated with large energy requirements, which could limit their scale-up.
India's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for India
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
295
|
402 to
570
|
394 to
653
|
290 to
663
|
164 to
527
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
36 to
93%
|
34 to
121%
|
-2 to
125%
|
-44 to
79%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
2
|
5 to
5
|
8 to
18
|
11 to
47
|
24 to
76
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
2
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
2
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
3
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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