What is India's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Ambition Gap

Last update: 15 March 2022

1.5°C compatible pathways

India has set two targets for emissions in its NDC – both excluding LULUCF: a) a reduction of the emissions intensity of its GDP to 33-35% below 2005 levels and b) increasing the share of non-fossil power generation (including renewables and nuclear power) to 40% by 2030 to be achieved with international support.

The share of non-fossil power target translates in lower emissions projections than the intensity target, equivalent to 146-152% above 2005 levels, excluding LULUCF1 This intensity target would allow India to increase its GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) by ~290-300% above 2005 levels.2

While India is already on track to overachieve both targets of its NDC, to be in line with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, the country would need to peak soon and reduce emissions as early as possible, aiming for a 2030 emissions level of 1.6 (range of 1.5–1.9) GtCO₂e, equivalent to 16% below 2005 levels (range of 1-23% below 2005 levels).

India’s current policies projections lies above its fair share as assessed by the Climate Action Tracker, so it will need to do more to get to its fair share of emissions reduction, but then it will also need international financial support to close the gap between its fair share level and its 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway.3

India's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Long term pathway

As of October 2021, India has not adopted a net zero target or any other explicit long-term strategy.

Paris Agreement compatible pathways indicate that India needs to reduce its GHG emissions by 2050 to 60-70% below 2005 levels (or reach 0.5-0.6 GtCO₂e), excluding LULUCF. Most reductions before 2050 would need to be achieved in the energy sector (84-92% below 2015 levels), with slightly more moderate emissions reductions in agriculture (44-54% below 2015 levels).

While most of the analysed scenarios assumes deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies starting in the 2020s, for example, through biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), these high up-front investments can be avoided if renewable energy shares reach 25-42% by 2030 in total primary energy.

India's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Scaling

Energy system transformation

In 2017, three quarters of India’s primary energy supply came from fossil fuels, with coal dominating at over 40%, followed by oil (25%) and a small share of gas. The remaining energy comes mostly from traditional biomass use in residential sector (~15%) and renewables (~10%).4

In a Paris Agreement compatible pathway, India would need to increase its share of renewable energy from a quarter of primary energy in 2017, to ~50% by 2030 and up to 80% by 2050. Other scenarios that do not consider non-energy use, show that India could increase its renewables share to 60% by 2030 and 100% by 2050.

Across all scenarios, this would mean a step up in renewables deployment across all sectors from ~9 EJ/yr in 2019, up to 20 EJ/yr in 2030, and up to around 61 EJ/yr in 2050. This growth in renewables would enable a gradual reduction of fossil fuel-based primary energy from 76% in 2017 (~28 EJ/yr), to 46-63% (10–21 EJ/yr) by 2030, and 5-19% (6-10 EJ/yr) by 2050.

Our analysis show emissions from energy use could reach zero by 2050.

Pathways with faster reductions of unabated fossil fuel use and faster uptake of renewables within the ranges above are able to achieve 1.5°C compatibility without the use of negative emissions technologies, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage.

Pathways with a slower transition from fossils to renewables typically see carbon removal technologies deployed as early as the 2020s and scale up to significant levels in the following decades. Given the lead times and infrastructure investments required to bring this technology to fruition, it is unlikely that such fast rollouts can be achieved, meaning that even higher shares of carbon removal technologies would be needed later, or 1.5°C compatibility would no longer be achievable.

India's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for India. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

Indicator
2005
Reference year
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
1801
3153
1650
1466 to 2022
983
766 to 1036
642
540 to 723
2069
Relative to reference year in %
-8%
-19 to 12%
-45%
-57 to -42%
-64%
-70 to -60%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
1190
2451
1231
1070 to 1476
664
234 to 799
164
78 to 403
2062
Relative to reference year in %
3%
-10 to 24%
-44%
-80 to -33%
-86%
-93 to -66%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

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