What is India's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
The industrial sector accounts for the largest share of total primary energy demand, at 38% in 2019, growing at an annual rate of 5% during the last 10 years.1 Electricity demand across the sector has steadily increased since 1990, and reached 42% in 2019.2 1.5°C compatible pathways show the share of electricity in industrial energy mix increasing between 30-31% by 2030, and 46-71% by 2050 from the 2019 level of 19%. Additionally, all scenarios show the sector’s direct CO₂ emissions declining rapidly, between 59-60% by 2030, and 88-96% by 2050, from a 2019 level. This decline is mostly driven by an increased share of renewables in the energy mix and energy efficiency measures.
India's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector.
-
Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
-
Currently, primary energy demand in industry is dominated by fossil fuels (58% in 2019), comprising of coal (35%) and oil (19%). All analysed 1.5°C compatible scenarios (except one) peak fossil energy demand by 2020, and show a declining trend thereafter to a 4-22% share by 2050.
In 2019, industrial process emissions accounted for 8% of total emissions (excl. LULUCF) (270 MtCO₂e/yr in 2019), and have been increasing since 1990 at an annual rate of 4%.3 The analysed 1.5°C pathways demonstrate a declining trend in process emissions from 2025 reaching –64 to 41 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050.
Energy efficiency measures in industries across India play a significant role in reducing energy consumption of this sector. One of the main energy efficiency instruments is the Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT) Mechanism.4 Two cycles of PAT between 2012- 2019 resulted in total savings of approximately 92 MtCO₂e. Other energy efficiency initiatives and electrification in the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME) sector have led to total avoided emissions of 0.124 MtCO₂ in 2018-19.5,6 India could further explore the scope of mitigation measures in the iron and steel industries, in particular the use of green hydrogen.7,8
India's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
-
Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
-
India's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
-
Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
-
1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, shares of electricity, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for India
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised industry sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
637
|
231 to
236
|
17 to
150
|
24 to
67
|
2037 to
2046
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-64 to
-63%
|
-97 to
-76%
|
-96 to
-89%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
19
|
30 to
31
|
39 to
55
|
47 to
72
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogren and biomass
per cent
|
46
|
57 to
62
|
72 to
86
|
79 to
95
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
-
Methodology
Data References
-