What is India's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
The total primary energy consumption of the transport sector in India has been steadily increasing since 1990 from 0.9 EJ in 1990 to 4.4 EJ in 2019.1 In 2019, the sector consumed 17% of total primary energy and 1.5% of electricity. Paris Agreement compatible pathways which require a rapid electrification of the sector show a share of electricity in total energy mix reaching 10-60% by 2030 and 44-89% by 2050. In all analysed scenarios, the sector’s emissions intensity declines rapidly, between 63-66% by 2030 and 82-100% by 2050 from 2019 level. The decline is mostly driven by high electrification rate of this sector and introduction of hydrogen and biofuels (particularly ethanol) in the fuel mix. The share of hydrogen and biofuel in the transport sector could reach 10-34% and 15-29% respectively by 2050 under different scenarios.
India's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Primary energy consumption in India’s transport sector is completely dominated by fossil fuels (96% in 2020), mostly oil (93%). All scenarios show fossil energy demand declining from 96% in 2020, to 23% share by 2050. One of the scenarios shows a fossil fuel phase-out from the transport sector by 2050.
India has provided a strong policy push to expedite the penetration of electric vehicles (EV) by providing subsidies to reduce the upfront cost of buying an EV.2 It has set a target of 30% share of electric vehicles in new sales by 2030.3 The government is also working on plans to require all two-wheelers to be electric by 2026.4 The sales of electric scooters has already doubled since 2021.5 The use of alternative fuels is also getting a policy push: the government has mandated the blending of 20% ethanol in petrol by 2025.6
India's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for India
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
308
|
105 to
115
|
26 to
94
|
0 to
54
|
2041 to
2059
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-66 to
-63%
|
-92 to
-70%
|
-100 to
-82%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
2
|
10 to
59
|
27 to
80
|
44 to
89
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
1
|
8 to
11
|
13 to
16
|
16 to
29
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
1 to
12
|
11 to
34
|
10 to
35
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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