What is Philippines's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Power

Power sector in 2030

The Philippines plans for renewable energy to account for 35% of power generation in 2030, according to the Philippines Energy Plan 2020-2040. This is far from the 80-83% that is required following 1.5°C compatible pathways.

Renewable energy can play a large part in reducing emissions in the power sector. Renewables reach up to 85% of the power mix by 2030, and around 100% by 2040, following 1.5°C compatible pathways. Focusing on renewable energy in the power sector would reduce the need to rely on CDR technologies that are unproven at scale or more costly. The carbon intensity of the power sector reduces from around 670 gCO₂/kWh in 2017 to as low as 100 gCO₂/kWh in 2030 and reaches zero by around 2039.

Following the PEP, coal will account for 45% of power generation by 2030, and gas 19%-40% in 2030.

If the coal moratorium leads to cancelling all future coal plans, the transition to renewables could be accelerated as investors shift investments to clean energy options. Restructuring the power sector with renewables could bring about a secure, low-emissions, flexible energy system. In recent years, coal-fired generation has not coped with peak demand, nor the low demand during the pandemic, causing power outages.1,2 Power bills continue to increase due to the high reliance on imported coal for power generation and increasing global coal prices.3

Renewable energy offers benefits such as flexibility, resilience, and electricity access for remote communities.

A potential for high penetration of renewables indicates that nuclear energy need not play a role in decarbonisation. The Philippines’ current nuclear energy programme roadmap places huge unnecessary risk of catastrophic damage to a country prone to earthquakes.

Philippines' power mix

terawatt-hour per year

Scaling

Dimension

In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.

  • Graph description

    Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.

    Methodology

    Data References

Towards a fully decarbonised power sector

Our analysis of 1.5°C compatible pathways shows emissions from the power sector need to peak immediately and could reach net zero by 2039, with negative emissions from then on. Reaching net zero power would involve a transition away from an emissions intensive electricity sector, with coal and gas needing to be phased out by around 2035.

The Philippines has installed 10.9 GW of coal-fired power plant capacity by 2020, with a further 2.6 GW planned.4 In terms of gas-fired power plant capacity, 3.5 GW has been installed already, with an additional 15-20 GW planned.

The 1.5°C compatible pathways show the Philippines needs to phase out coal by 2034. For the coal moratorium to be effective, it would need to be applied to all coal plans, and additionally, implementing plans to phase out coal and gas by around 2034. These plans highlight the discrepancy between the future of the Philippine energy system and the need for rapid decarbonisation. These actions will require significant amount of international support to implement.

Philippines' power sector emissions and carbon intensity

MtCO₂/yr

Unit

Investments

Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy

Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in the Philippines to be on the order of USD 3 to 12 billion by 2030 and 3 to 18 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors, growing energy demand, and expansion of electricity access. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.

Demand shifting towards the power sector

The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.

Philippines' renewable electricity investments

Billion USD / yr

Scaling

  • Graph description

    Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.

    Methodology

1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks

Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Philippines

Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Decarbonised power sector by
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
672
110 to 143
-28 to 0
-29 to 0
2039
Relative to reference year in %
-84 to -79%
-104 to -100%
-104 to -100%
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of phase-out
Share of unabated coal
per cent
55
10 to 11
0 to 0
0 to 0
Share of unabated gas
per cent
21
6 to 7
0 to 0
0 to 0
2035
Share of renewable energy
per cent
21
80 to 83
99 to 100
100 to 100
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
79
17 to 20
0 to 1
0 to 0

BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

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