Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

The Philippines updated its NDC in April 2021. The Philippines first NDC was a 70% reduction below an unspecified business-as-usual baseline by 2030, conditional on international support. The second NDC included both an unconditional and a conditional target, 2.71% and 72.29% reduction from a cumulative BAU, respectively.

As the BAU baseline was not reported in the original NDC it is difficult to determine if the updated NDC was more ambitious. The unconditional target is calculated to be equivalent to 384 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030 (excluding LULUCF). The new conditional target is calculated to be equivalent to 47% below 2015 levels (excluding LULUCF) or 90 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030 (excluding LULUCF).¹

The Philippines’ new conditional NDC is consistent with a 1.5˚C compatible pathway.²

Current policy projections show that the Philippines is on track to meet its unconditional target but not on track to meeting its conditional NDC target. Current policy emissions are expected to increase by 34-41% above 2015 levels.

Our analysis shows that a 1.5°C compatible pathway would require emissions peaking as soon as possible, and then decline to 41% below 2015 levels by 2030, when excluding LULUCF emissions.

Under the Paris Agreement, international support, including finance, technology transfer and capacity building, will be needed for The Philippines’ to close the emissions gap between its fair share and its domestic emissions pathway.

Philippines' total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

A Paris Agreement compatible pathway would require emissions decreasing to 49 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 or 73% emission reduction below 2015 levels by 2050, excluding LULUCF.³ The sectoral emissions remaining in 2050 would be mainly agriculture in all scenarios.

Agriculture emissions are mainly from rice cultivation, digestive processes in animals and livestock manure.⁴ Modelling suggests that agriculture emissions, along with waste emissions, may continue as a source of emissions in the future under a 1.5°C compatible pathway, but at lower levels, requiring reduction policy in these sectors. On the road to net zero, the country will need to balance its remaining GHG emissions through the use of carbon dioxide removal approaches such as land sinks.

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

A 1.5°C compatible pathway requires the energy sector to shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy.

In 2019, renewables represented 34% of the total primary energy mix. A 1.5°C compatible pathway shows renewables could be scaled up to represent 64% of primary energy by 2030, 88% by 2040 and 93% by 2050.

This high energy demand low CDR reliance pathway would be possible through an accelerated uptake of renewable energy and electrification, including the transport sector, which can be electrified and powered by renewable energy. Industry also has the potential to decarbonise through energy efficiency improvements, electrifying heat production and use of green hydrogen among others.

The high CDR reliance scenario includes the application of negative emissions technology using bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) by 2030. An accelerated uptake of renewable energy would remove the reliance on this technology. BECCS technology raises several challenges such as indirect emissions, technical barriers, high costs, demands on land use for crops, and biodiversity impacts among others.⁵ Conversely, renewable energy technologies such as wind and solar are cost-effective alternatives with sustainable development benefits.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Philippines. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	2015 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	182	211	107 89 to 124	64 62 to 71	49 40 to 56
Relative to reference year in %			-41% -51 to -32%	-65% -66 to -61%	-73% -78 to -69%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	100	126	56 48 to 67	27 11 to 34	8 0 to 14	2057 2051 to 2067
Relative to reference year in %			-44% -52 to -33%	-73% -89 to -66%	-92% -100 to -86%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: Climate Action Tracker 2020 update
- Download data as CSV

Calculated by the Climate Action Tracker, currently unpublished. ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Philippines. November 2020 update. Climate Action Tracker. (2020). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability. ↩
Climate Transparency. Philippines Country Profile. (2020). ↩
Fern. Would BECCS deliver negative emissions? (2021). ↩

What is Philippines's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Philippines' total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Philippines' primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Philippines' total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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