What is Philippines's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Between 2010-2019, the country’s transport emissions rose by 55%. Assessed 1.5°C scenarios show emissions decreasing immediately, except for the high energy demand, low carbon dioxide removal (CDR) scenario where emissions peak in 2030 followed by a sharp decline.
Philippines' energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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In 2019, the transport sector was dominated by oil-derived fuels, representing 96% of the transport energy mix, with the rest attributable to biofuels. Electric vehicles (EVs) are a key technology for replacing internal combustion engine vehicles and eliminating their large share of transport emissions. The assessed 1.5°C pathways show electricity representing a 1-6% share of the transport sector in 2030 and 12-40% by 2050, up from its almost 0% share in 2019. These shares likely underestimate the potential rate of an EV rollout, given their sharp rise in several markets globally. The Philippines Energy Plan (PEP) 2020-2040 aims for a 5% EV penetration rate for road transport by 2040.1 However, current policies are insufficient to meet this target.
Philippines' transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Philippines
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
37
|
22 to
23
|
14 to
15
|
4 to
12
|
2055 to
2064
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-40 to
-39%
|
-63 to
-60%
|
-89 to
-68%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
0
|
1 to
6
|
7 to
13
|
12 to
40
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
4
|
9 to
11
|
8 to
17
|
9 to
36
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
1 to
18
|
22 to
53
|
41 to
67
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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