What is United Republic of Tanzania's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
Tanzania mostly relies on fossil fuels (about 62%, mostly natural gas and oil) in its power sector, with less than 36% of its power produced from renewable energy sources.1 The country’s National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) and Energy Policy have set targets for an increase of renewables by up to 25% the current capacity by 2026.2,3
1.5°C compatible pathways indicate a sharp increase in renewables from 34% of the power mix in 2019 to 90-99% by 2030. This could drive emissions reductions in the highly carbon intensive power sector from 400 gCO₂/kWh to 0-50 gCO₂/kWh by 2030. In contrast, Tanzania plans to expand its natural gas infrastructure with reserves estimated at 53.28 trillion cf and only less than 1% of this has so far been exploited.4,5,6 Such plans increase the risk for the country to be locked in a carbon intensive pathway with stranded assets as fossil gas needs already be phased out in the coming decade.
In its 2019 voluntary report on SDGs Tanzania reported that just 29% of households in Tanzania have electricity.7 This implies that there is an increased need to increase generation and supply of electricity but these have to come from renewable sources if a reduction in carbon intensity is to be achieved.
United Republic of Tanzania's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
-
Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
-
Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
The power sector could achieve full decarbonisation by 2037 at the latest and with a gas phase-out by 2038. Achieving this will require discontinuing plans to expand the country’s fossil fuel resources, decommissioning of thermal plants and implementation of its renewable energy initiatives as outlined in the NCCRS and FYDP.8,9 Enhanced targets for implementation in the power sector will be important especially since Tanzania’s power sector plan envision increased natural gas and coal investments.10
Pathways assessed in our analysis indicate that Tanzania could face the risk of having to rely on costly CDR approaches, not yet available at scale, in the power sector to comply with 1.5°C compatible pathways if a fossil-fuel phase-out is not pursued. Higher share of renewables in the power mix combined with off-grid renewable solutions such as solar could reduce reliance on these technologies.
United Republic of Tanzania's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
-
Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
-
Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Tanzania to be on the order of USD 0.3 to 2.1 billion by 2030 and 0.6 to 8 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors, growing energy demand, and expansion of electricity access. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
United Republic of Tanzania's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
-
Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
-
1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for United Republic of Tanzania
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
397
|
4 to
48
|
0 to
1
|
-50 to
-27
|
2030 to
2037
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-99 to
-88%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
-113 to
-107%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
46
|
0 to
10
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
2030 to
2038
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
34
|
90 to
99
|
100 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
66
|
1 to
10
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
-
Methodology
Data References
-