What is United Republic of Tanzania's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
LULUCF and agriculture are the main sources of emissions (41% for LULUCF and 38% for agriculture in 2019). The energy sector follows at around 13% and waste at 6%. Agriculture sector emits mostly methane, driven largely by livestock.1,2 Emissions in the energy sector are mostly from fossil fuels - gas and oil used in electricity generation and transport. The country still relies heavily on use of traditional biomass, mainly for cooking.3,4
NDC projections indicate that emissions will rise to 138-153 MtCO₂e by 2030 in a business-as-usual scenario.5
United Republic of Tanzania's current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Non-LULUCF emissions from PRIMAP 2021, energy combustion emissions from IEA GHG Fuel 2021 and LULUCF emissions from FAO STAT 2021.
Data References
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Energy system
Tanzania’s energy is dominated by traditional biomass. Biomass accounted for 82% of its total energy supply in 2019, followed by oil and gas at 12% and 3%, respectively and renewable energy that includes hydro, wind and solar making up the remaining 3%.6 The majority of the population (around 70%) living in rural areas rely on biomass for cooking and heating thus the government has prioritised electrification to enable a shift to electricity for cooking.7,8 In the power sector, renewables made up around 34% in 2019.9
According to its national energy policy, Tanzania has an estimated hydro potential of up to 4.7GW. In 2021 it had only 573.7 MW (around 12%) hydro capacity installed.10,11 It plans to increase generation from renewable sources such as geothermal, hydro and solar.12,13,14 Tanzania also plans to ramp up investment in natural gas and coal to reach 6700MW (33%) and 5300 (26%) by 2044. In 2021 coal was less than 1% of its power generation.15 Further investments in fossil fuels risk locking the country in high carbon intensive pathway.16,17 In May 2021, Tanzania and Uganda signed an agreement of the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline signalling continued investment in fossil fuels.18 This further puts into question its commitment to low-carbon development.
Targets and commitments
Note: Sectoral targets and policies are not detailed in Tanzania’s updated NDC. Reported targets and policies here are from Tanzania’s Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS).
Economy-wide targets
Target type
Baseline scenario target
NDC target
Conditional NDC Target:
- 30-35% below BAU (incl. LULUCF) by 2030 or around 0-7% below 2014 levels.19
- This translates in 12% below to 24% above 2015 levels by 2030 when excluding LULUCF emissions.20
Market mechanisms
- Tanzania intends to use market mechanisms, stating in its updated NDC that these can contribute to emission reduction.
Long-term target
- Tanzania has not yet provided a long-term strategy but the updated NDC makes subtle reference to a low carbon resilient future in addition to media reports of its commitment to net-zero by 2050.21,22
Sectoral targets
Energy
- Energy targets include geothermal (650 MW), solar (4.5 GW – installed capacity of 562 MW), hydro and wind energy.23,24
- There is a set target of 70% renewable energy by 2025/26 but this is inclusive of natural gas.25,26 Tanzania has considerable natural gas prospects of 57 trillion cubic feet in recently discovered reserves of which only around 100 million cubic feet has been exploited to produce 527 MW.27
- The National 5-yr Development Plan (FYDP) of 2016/17-2020/21 states that 50 % of Tanzania’s energy will be from renewables.28 The energy policy outlines measures such as energy efficiency, increased electrification to meet its energy access for all targets.29,30,31 A 10% reduction in biomass consumption by 2025 as outlined in the National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) is also set to contribute to reduced emissions.32
Power
- A target is not quantified.
- The NCCRS envisages a 25% increase in power generation from renewables by 2025.33
Transport
- A specific target is not set.
- The NCCRS states that Tanzania is set to expand its BRT network, develop NMT and invest in ‘low emission transport systems’ to lower its emissions.34
Buildings
- Target not specified.
- The NCCRS outlines the promotion of green buildings as one of its strategies targeting 40% of new buildings.35
Waste
- Target not specified but the NCCRS has set out to ensure the increased generation of energy from waste by 10% and effective wastewater management for 60% of cities and municipal councils by 2026.36
Agriculture
- Target not specified.
- NCCRS outlines the development of a Livestock Management plan and setting in place pastoral pastureland co-management plans by 2026 to contribute to mitigation efforts.