What is Indonesia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Decarbonising the transport sector
Transport contributed 15% of Indonesia’s emissions in 2022, driven mainly by oil’s 87% share in the energy mix while biofuel made up the remaining 13%.1 Transport accounted for nearly three quarters of Indonesia’s total final oil products consumption.2 Electric vehicle (EV) adoption remains low but is beginning to take off, with EV sales tripling in 2024 compared to 2023.3
Indonesia's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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In the Deep Electrification pathway, transport emissions peak at just under 200 MtCO₂e around 2025 – higher than in other pathways – before declining. Electricity’s share of transport energy demand rises from under 1% in 2022 to 17% by 2030 and nearly three-quarters by 2050, while oil falls to just over 20% and biofuels around 4%. This pathway reduces biofuel-related deforestation risks, though it entails a higher emissions peak.
Transport electrification can be realised by building on existing fiscal incentives (e.g. VAT discounts and luxury tax relief), scaling up charging infrastructure, expanding low-carbon public transport, and easing local content rules to accelerate electrification.4 Stimulating domestic demand for EVs can boost Indonesia’s EV manufacturing industry, allowing Indonesia to leverage its abundant nickel reserves to support its manufacturing sector.
Indonesia's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Indonesia
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Transport sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
147
|
150 to
194
|
142 to
176
|
104 to
133
|
8 to
58
|
2050 to
2066
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
2 to
32%
|
-3 to
20%
|
-29 to
-10%
|
-95 to
-61%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
0
|
2 to
16
|
4 to
29
|
8 to
50
|
25 to
73
|
|
Share of biofuels
%
|
13
|
1 to
3
|
2 to
4
|
2 to
5
|
4 to
54
|
|
Share of hydrogen
%
|
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
2
|
1 to
6
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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