What is Indonesia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

In the Net Zero Commitments pathway, which emphasises economy-wide electrification, electricity’s share in the transport sector increases from less than 1% in 2021 to 16% by 2030 and 73% by 2050. Hydrogen and biofuels play a smaller role, together fulfilling just 5% of transport energy needs by 2050. Under a pathway which reaches global net zero CO₂ emissions around 2050 through ambitious climate policies and innovation, transport electrification progresses more gradually to reach 25% of the transport energy mix by 2050. This is balanced by greater reliance on biofuels and hydrogen, each accounting for 6% of the transportation energy mix by the middle of the century.

In the Minimal CDR pathway, transportation energy demand decreases by 14% between 2021–2050. This ambitious outcome can be achieved through modal shifts and public transportation infrastructure development, in addition to efficiency gains from electrification. Building upon successful recent projects like the Jakarta Light Rail Transit, the Mass Rapid Transit and the high-speed rail between Jakarta and Bandung, investments in public transport can improve the commutes of millions of citizens while cutting emissions.³3

Indonesia has the potential to become a key player in EV manufacturing, which could be channelled towards domestic sales. The government aims to have domestically produced “low carbon” vehicles reach 20% of vehicle sales by 2025, supported by stringent local content requirements specifying the share of components that must be sourced domestically. ⁴4^,55^,66 The transition towards clean mobility also comes with major socio-economic benefits, such as increased life expectancy (air pollution takes four years off Indonesians’ life expectancy in some areas).⁷7 In a 1.5°C future, the days of severe smog enveloping Jakarta could become a thing of the past.