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In brief

What is Indonesiaʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Economy wide

To achieve a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Indonesia would need to peak and decline its GHG emissions immediately and reach 30-48% reductions below 2015 by 2030, an emissions gap of close to 1.3 GtCO₂e/yr

Indonesiaʼs total GHG emissions

excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values
Reference year
−100%−50%0%50%100%19902010203020502070
Reference year
2015
1.5°C emissions level
−47%
NDC (conditional)
+98%
NDC (unconditional)
+116%
Ambition gap
−144%
  • 1.5°C compatible pathways
  • Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
  • Current policy projections
  • 1.5°C emissions range
  • Historical emissions

2030 NDC

Indonesia’s updated NDC reiterates its first 2030 target of an unconditional emissions reduction of 29% below business as usual (BAU) levels, and a conditional reduction of 41% below BAU by 2030.1

1 Climate Action Tracker – Indonesia. (2021).

2 Indonesia LTS-LCCR 2050. Indonesia Long-Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience 2050 (Indonesia LTS-LCCR 2050). (2021).

3 Kementerian PPN/Bappenas. Low Carbon Development : A Paradigm Shift Towards a Green Economy in Indonesia. (2019).

4 Climate Action Tracker. Climate Governance Series_Indonesia. (2021).

5 Climate Action Tracker. COAL PHASE OUT AND ENERGY TRANSITION PATHWAYS. (2021).

6 Climate Action Tracker. How a COVID-19 recovery with less coal could benefit Indonesia. (2021).

7 Climate Action Tracker. Indonesia. CAT September 2020 Update. (2020).

8 Climate Transparency. Climate Transparency Report. (2020).

9 BP. Statistical Review of World Energy 2021. (2021).

10 , O. of E. C. OEC Indonesia country page. Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC). (2019).

11 Rahman, D. F. PLN pledges carbon neutrality by 2050 . The Jakarta Post (2021).

12 Development Bank, A. Indonesia Energy Sector Assessment, Strategy, and Road Map – Update. (2020).

13 Kharina, A. et al. BIOFUELS POLICY IN INDONESIA: OVERVIEW AND STATUS REPORT. (2016).

14 Climate Action Tracker. Scaling Up Climate Action: Indonesia. Climate Action tracker. (2019).

15 World Resource Institute. CAIT Paris Contributions Map – Explore Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs).

16 NDC-Indonesia. Updated Nationally Determined Contribution-Republic of Indonesia. (2021).

17 Hans Nicholas Jong. Indonesia says no new coal plants from 2023 (after the next 100 or so). (2021).

18 Ministry of Energy Mineral Resources Republic of Indonesia. Indonesia’s Effort to Phase Out and Rationalise Its Fossil-Fuel Subsidies A self report on the G-20 peer review of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption in Indonesia. (2019).

19 Ministry of Research. and H. E. Indonesia Center of excellence for ccs and ccus. 2017.

20 Reuters. Indonesia carbon capture storage projects could need $500 mln, official says | Reuters. (2021).

21 Fuentes, U. et al. Decarbonising South & South East Asia – Country Profile – Indonesia. (2019).

22 Climate Action Tracker. Paris Agreement Compatible Sectoral Benchmarks: Elaborating the decarbonisation roadmap. (2020).

23 Climate Transperancy. Climate Transperancy Country Profile-Indonesia. (2021).

24 IEA. Indonesia. International Energy Agency. (2021).

25 PIK. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series. (2021).

26 IEA. E4 Country Profile: Energy Efficiency Indonesia. (2021).

27 Saputra, G. & Simanjuntak, U. The Need for Supportive Policy for the Indonesian Electric Vehicle Development. (2021).

28 ICCT. The hidden cost of Indonesia’s biodiesel mandate to consumers | International Council on Clean Transportation. (2017).

29 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.

30 Fossil fuel with CCS in the power sector are very likely to emit at the very least a tenth of the average emissions compared with an installation without CCS and therefore cannot be considered a zero or low-carbon technology. Costs of CCS in the power sector have remained stagnant over the last decade. CCS technologies in the power sector also have a non-trivial sustainability footprint in terms of increased water use, higher fossil resource demands and consequential mining and production footprint, and in general do not address local air pollution concerns. The CCS technologies are also uncertain regarding security of storage over very long periods of time and the need for legal structure to allow it to happen.

Conditional NDC

Indonesia’s conditional NDC target would result in an increase in GHG emissions excluding land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) of 99-100% above 2015 levels by 2030.1

Fair share

While Indonesia’s current policies would allow emissions far above its “fair share” range as assessed by the Climate Action Tracker, the country will need to receive international support to close the gap between its fair share and domestic emissions pathway.1

Long-term strategy

Indonesia’s Long-Term Strategy, released in July 2021, aims to peak emissions in 2030 and achieve net zero by 2060 or sooner.1,2

Net zero

This is not aligned with the analysis undertaken by Bappenas, Indonesia’s National Development Planning Agency, that proposed a more ambitious emission reduction pathway leading to net zero emissions by 2045 and indicating that reaching net zero earlier could be economically and socially more beneficial.3,4

2050 Ambition

Our analysis of 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that by 2050 GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF, could be reduced to 150-215 MtCO₂e/yr or 76-79% below 2019 levels, driven primarily through emissions reductions in the energy sector, but also in waste and agriculture.29 This stands in contrast with Indonesia’s long-term strategy’s “long term Paris compatible scenario” (LCCP), which would still allow an increase in emissions of around 1% compared to 2015 levels by 2050.2

Land-use and forestry

LULUCF emissions will play a major role in the country’s trajectory to reach net zero. Indonesia will need to implement stringent policies to reduce deforestation. In 2016, land use sector accounted for 43% of Indonesia’s total emissions, as a result from extensive deforestation for agriculture.

Sectors

Power

1.5°C compatible pathways illustrate that renewables in the power sector need to reach 70–75% by 2030 and 99–100% by 2050.

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Power

A high uptake of renewables can bring down emissions intensity to 105–157 gCO₂/kWh from the 2019 level of 761 gCO₂/kWh by 2030, thus reducing the reliance on negative emissions technologies such as bio energy carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and carbon capture and storage (CCS). Indonesia plans to equip 76% of its coal power plants with CCS to achieve net zero emissions. However, relying on CCS comes with high costs and uncertainty.2,30

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Power

Indonesia plans to retire coal-fired power plants which are older than 20 years and stop building new coal-fired plants after 2023.5 In line with this, its primary electricity distribution company, Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), has recently committed to providing “carbon neutral electricity” by 2050. This is in sharp contrast to Indonesia’s huge coal pipeline of over 30 GW of coal-fired power capacity that is already financed and/or under construction. It also directly contradicts with analyses showing a coal phase-out by 2030, followed by a gas phase-out between 2035 and 2038 are needed.6

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Buildings

Energy consumption in Indonesia’s buildings sector t accounts for 3.8% of direct CO₂ emissions and 20.7% of indirect CO₂ emissions.

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Buildings

The total final energy consumption of the residential building sector peaked in 2007 and has since been in decline, falling by 43% to 2019. During the same period, residential electricity demand increased by around 120%.

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Buildings

1.5°C compatible pathways illustrate that the share of electricity demand in the building sector could be 54-76% in 2030, and 92-95% by 2050, under different scenarios.

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Buildings

The share of solid biomass, mainly from palm oil residue, has been significant for meeting the energy demand of buildings, 52% in 2020. All scenarios however see a rapid decline in demand of solid biomass, reaching 4-25% by 2050.

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Transport

Indonesia’s transport sector is completely dependent on fossil fuels, particularly oil. The share of electricity in energy use is insignificant.

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Transport

A 1.5°C compatible pathway illustrates a rapid electrification of the transport sector, with a forecasted increased share of electricity demand of 6-7% by 2030 and 23-48% by 2050.

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Transport

All scenarios show peaking of fossil energy demand from transport sector by 2020.

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Transport

The government is providing a policy push for an increased uptake of electric vehicles, biofuel blending up to 40% by 2022 and investing in infrastructure development for mass transit. However, the bulk of biofuels are palm oil, and the cultivation of palm trees is strongly linked to deforestation and peat land destruction.

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Industry

Growth of the industrial energy demand in Indonesia has remained volatile since 2008, however has increased by 48% between 2008-2019.

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Industry

The electricity demand in industry is steadily increasing since 1990, at an annual rate of 6.4%, with the industry’s share in total electricity demand registered at 36%, in 2019.

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Industry

Improved energy efficiency is key to mitigating industry emissions, with all scenarios demonstrating a rapid decline in emissions intensity of the industrial sector to 75-115 MtCO₂/yr by 2030 and 14-59 MtCO₂/yr by 2050.

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Industry

Industrial process emissions are shown to be increasing since 1990, however decline significantly from 2025 in 1.5°C compatible pathways.

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Footnotes