What is Indonesia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Across all 1.5°C compatible pathways, direct CO₂ emissions from energy use fall sharply after the 2020s, underpinned by accelerated clean power deployment and a complete coal phase-out by 2040.

The Deep Electrification Pathway, which best captures the rapid cost reductions in wind and solar, sees electricity, bioenergy, and hydrogen rise to over half of the industrial energy mix in 2030 and over 90% by 2050 – with bioenergy making up one-third. While this pathway reduces reliance on biomass and eases deforestation concerns relative to other pathways, careful policy design is needed to avoid industrial decarbonisation driving deforestation.

Indonesia set a target to reduce industrial process emissions by up to 9 MtCO₂e below BAU by 2030.³3 However, it faces challenges in decarbonising its steel and coal-derived chemical industries, with low rates of steel production from electric arc furnaces. Continued support for coal under the New and Renewable Energy Bill, introduced in 2022, raises concerns, though the Bill’s progress has stalled.⁴4 To realise industrial decarbonisation potential and stay competitive amid falling global demand for carbon-intensive goods, Indonesia must accelerate electrification in steelmaking and rapidly shift from coal to renewables, leveraging its vast clean energy potential and promoting energy efficiency.

As the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, much of Indonesia’s coal-related emissions occur abroad and are not reflected in its national inventories.⁵5^,66 Similarly, our 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways for the industry sector do not take into account combustion or fugitive emissions from fossil fuel industries.