What is Indonesia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Decarbonising the industry sector
In 2021, Indonesia’s industry emissions were 219 MtCO2e, or 22% of national emissions excluding LULUCF.1 These emissions were mainly from industrial energy use (160 MtCO2e), with the remainder from industrial processes (58 MtCO2e).2 Coal, gas and oil supplied 70% of industrial energy demand that year, with electricity and biomass supplying the remainder.3
Indonesia's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Under the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway, which limits warming to 1.5°C with only a minimal amount of CDR, industrial electrification advances rapidly, especially in the mining and metals sector. Under this pathway, by 2030 the energy mix in the industrial sector is evenly divided between fossil fuels and a combination of electricity and bioenergy. By 2035, coal – which provided 37% of industrial energy consumption in 2021 – is phased out, yielding health and air quality benefits in addition to climate benefits.4
Under the same pathway, by 2050 98% of the industrial energy mix would have transitioned to electricity, bioenergy and hydrogen, with bioenergy supplying 39% alone. With such a high share the flow-on effects from extensive bioenergy use such as land use change, water consumption, and soil degradation would need to be mitigated, depending on the type of biomass used and its source.
Industrial process emissions5 would fall sharply from 2035 under the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway, with emissions reductions catalysed by new energy efficiency measures and increased electrification.6
Indonesia is the world’s largest thermal coal exporter.7 The full climate impact of the country’s coal production is therefore not accounted for in its national inventories, as much of the emissions occur beyond its borders.8 Our 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways for the industry sector do not take into account combustion or fugitive emissions from fossil fuel industries.
Indonesia's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Indonesia's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Indonesia
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised industry sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
134
|
56 to
101
|
44 to
60
|
28 to
45
|
4 to
28
|
2044 to
2051
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-58 to
-25%
|
-67 to
-55%
|
-79 to
-66%
|
-97 to
-79%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
16
|
20 to
25
|
26 to
32
|
26 to
38
|
36 to
57
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
per cent
|
30
|
48 to
61
|
66 to
70
|
77 to
83
|
85 to
98
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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