What is Indonesia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Current Situation

Emissions

In 2024, Indonesia’s emissions were 1157 MtCO2e, excluding LULUCF. The energy sector accounted for over two-thirds of these emissions, with power generation, industrial energy use and transport contributing 30%, 17% and 15% of total emissions, respectively. Waste and agriculture contributed 13% and 12%, while industrial processes emitted roughly 7% (excluding LULUCF) of the country’s emissions, largely driven by the fast-growing production of minerals and metals.

Although excluded from this breakdown, the LULUCF sector is a major source of emissions. The latest government data shows that, in 2022, LULUCF accounted for almost 23% of total emissions (including LULUCF), with net deforestation of around 113,000 hectares per year.1,2 Forest loss increased sharply in recent years, rising by 66% to approximately 434,000 hectares in 2025 – the highest level in eight years.3 This surge has been linked to the expansion of land conversion for monocultural production, biofuel production, mining activities (including coal, gold, and nickel), and the construction of the country’s new capital.4 With these drivers remaining central to government priorities, overall emissions (including the LULUCF sector) are likely to increase further.

Indonesia's 2024 GHG emissions

excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions. Individual sector rounding may lead to small inconsistencies in total sum.

Energy

Indonesia’s energy mix is dominated by fossil fuels, with coal, oil and gas supplying 36%, 26% and 16% of the country’s energy in 2023. Abundant resources make it the world’s second largest coal producer and the largest coal exporter.5 Since 2010, coal production has more than doubled, with around 70% exported in 2023.6

Recent coal capacity expansion between mid-2024 and mid-2025 has been driven primarily by captive, off-grid coal plants, particularly those supporting energy-intensive nickel processing for electric vehicle supply chains; these accounted for around 80% of year-on-year coal additions.7 Although the government had planned to reduce the 2026 annual coal production quota by 24% to around 600 mn tonnes, recent geopolitical developments in oil markets have accelerated approvals for an annual production plan of 580 mn tonnes, signalling the potential for increasing the quota in 2026.8

Indonesia is the Asia-Pacific’s third largest gas exporter – with 27% of production exported. It is also a net oil importer, with crude oil imports accounting for over one-third of its total crude oil supply in 2023.9 In response to recent oil market volatility, President Prabowo has announced an ambition to phase out all fuel imports within two to three years, expanding on an earlier target to cease diesel imports in 2026.10, 11 This objective is linked to a broader decarbonisation strategy encompassing a 100 GW electrification push, the closure of 13 diesel-fired power plants, the scale up of electric vehicle deployment, and increased domestic renewable energy production (including biodiesel derived from palm oil).12

Biomass supplied 11% of Indonesia’s energy mix in 2023.13 Recent oil market pressures have accelerated implementation of the B50 biodiesel policy, scheduled to begin on 1 July 2026, which increases the mandatory blending rate for palm-based biodiesel from 40% to 50%, with a view to full adoption by 2028.14 However, expanded biomass use raises significant concerns regarding the role of palm oil in deforestation and raising global vegetable oil prices.15

Non-biomass renewables made up around 11% of the 2023 energy mix, leaving significant potential untapped.16 In March 2026, the government set a target to increase the renewable energy share to 17–21% by 2026, with an emphasis on scaling up solar deployment to better harness Indonesia’s considerable solar potential.17

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