What is Indonesia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
In 2019, Indonesia’s emissions were 977 MtCO2e, excluding LULUCF.1 The energy sector was responsible for two-thirds of these emissions, driven primarily by power generation, transportation, and industrial energy consumption.2 Waste and agriculture contributed 15% and 13% of Indonesia's emissions for that year, respectively.3 Industrial processes emitted 58 MtCO2e, predominantly from the fast-growing mineral and metal sectors, accounting for 6% of emissions excluding LULUCF in that year.4
Although excluded from the above breakdown, the LULUCF sector is a major emitter, releasing 925 MtCO2e in 2019 — almost as much as the rest of the country’s entire economy. The sector has experienced wide fluctuations, with emissions reaching 1.56 GtCO2e in 2015.5
Since 1990, Indonesia's emissions excluding LULUCF have more than tripled, driven by an increase in power demand as the country reached nearly complete universal access to electricity.6 This increase in demand was mainly met by coal power generation.
While the expansion of the mineral industry, especially nickel extraction, positions Indonesia to play a major role in the global energy transition, the mining boom has led to the building of new captive coal capacities and energy-intensive infrastructure.7 Between 2015 and 2019, coal consumption surged by almost 75%, leading to a 15% increase in total domestic emissions excluding LULUCF.8 In 2022, Indonesia signed a Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) that pledged USD 20 bn over the next few years to fast-track the country’s energy transition by reducing coal’s importance in the power sector.9,10
Indonesia's 2019 GHG emissions
excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector.
Data References
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Energy overview and main policy gaps
Indonesia’s energy mix is dominated by fossil fuels, which accounted for 74% of the energy consumption in 2021 and benefits from significant support from the government.11 Coal, oil and gas accounted for 30%, 29% and 14% respectively of the country’s energy supply, however coal’s share has nearly doubled since 2015.12
Indonesia has massive coal resources, and it the largest thermal coal exporter in the world with a record output in 2023.13 Although Indonesia also exports fossil gas via pipeline and in liquefied form, its role within the domestic energy landscape is comparatively modest, accounting for 14% of the primary energy supply in 2021.14
Biomass accounted for 14% of Indonesia’s energy supply in 2021. The government has rolled out policies promoting fuel blending, thereby increasing biomass use in the energy system, despite concerns about palm oil's role in deforestation.15
Making up just 13% of the energy mix in 2021, Indonesia’s non-biomass renewable potential remains largely untapped. This is in part due to the local content requirements’ impact on solar PV cost, which mandate that a certain percentage of materials and components be sourced domestically, and to the restricting structure of the power market, which limits opportunities for the private sector.16 Deployment of technologies such as wind and solar need to be accelerated to shift Indonesia towards a 1.5°C compatible pathway.17
Targets and commitments
Unconditional 2022 NDC Target:
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As expressed by the country: 32% emissions reductions below business-as-usual by 203018
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When excluding LULUCF, Indonesia’s unconditional target translates to: 1805 MtCO2e, or more than double (124%) 2015 levels by 2030 19
Conditional 2022 NDC Target:
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As expressed by the country: 43% emissions reductions below business-as-usual by 203020
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When excluding LULUCF, Indonesia’s conditional target translates to: 1710 MtCO2e, or 112% above 2015 levels by 2030 21
Long-term target
As formulated by the country: “greenhouse gas emissions will peak in 2030 […], [and then] decline to reach 0.54 GtCO2-eq in 2050. It is expected that net zero emissions (NZE) will be achieved by 2060 or sooner”.22