What is Indonesia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Current Situation

Emissions profile

In 2022, Indonesia’s emissions were roughly 1200 MtCO2e, excluding LULUCF.1 The energy sector was responsible for two-thirds of these emissions, driven primarily by power generation, transportation, and industrial energy consumption.2 Waste and agriculture contributed 16% and 11% of Indonesia's emissions for that year, respectively.3 Industrial processes emitted 71.2 MtCO2e, predominantly from the fast-growing mineral and metal sectors, accounting for 6% of emissions excluding LULUCF in that year.4

Although excluded from the above breakdown, the LULUCF sector is a major emitter, releasing 361 MtCO2 in 2020, nearly 40% of Indonesia’s total CO2 emissions (including LULUCF) in that year.5 The sector has experienced wide fluctuations, with emissions reaching 1.66 GtCO2 in 2015.6

Since 1990, Indonesia's emissions excluding LULUCF have more than tripled, driven by an increase in power demand as the country reached nearly complete universal access to electricity.7, 8 This increase in demand was mainly met by coal power generation.9

While the expansion of the mineral industry (especially nickel extraction) positions Indonesia to play a major role in the global energy transition, the mining boom has led to increased deforestation and the buildout of new captive coal capacities and energy-intensive infrastructure.10, 11 In 2022, Indonesia signed a Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) that pledged USD 20 bn over the next three to five years to fast-track the country’s energy transition by eventually phase out coal in the power sector.12,13

Indonesia's 2022 GHG emissions

excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions. Individual sector rounding may lead to small inconsistencies in total sum.

Energy overview and main policy gaps

Indonesia’s energy mix is dominated by fossil fuels, with coal, oil and gas supplying 36%, 26% and 16% of the country’s energy in 2023.14,15 Abundant resources make it the world’s second-largest coal producer and the largest coal exporter. Since 2010, coal production has more than doubled, with around 70% exported in 2023.16 In 2022, domestic coal burning surged by 33% compared to 2021 as new coal-fired plants and nickel smelters came online.17 Indonesia is the Asia-Pacific’s third-largest gas exporter, exporting 27% of production, and is a net oil importer with crude oil imports rebounding in 2023 after the pandemic.18

Indonesia’s biomass supplied 11% of energy mix in 202319 Policies that promote fuel-blending have boosted biomass use in the energy system, though concerns remain over palm oil's role in deforestation.20

Non-biomass renewables made up just 12% of the 2023 power mix, leaving significant potential untapped.21 This is in part due to limited rollout of solar PV because of inflated costs from the local content requirement policy, which mandates that a certain percentage of materials and components be sourced domestically. It is also due to the restrictive structure of the power market which limits opportunities for the private sector.22 Accelerating deployment of solar, wind, and other clean technologies is essential to align with 1.5°C. This would require enhanced renewable targets, subsidy reform, power market restructuring, and effective implementation of the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP).

Targets and commitments

While the full analysis on ambition, including comparison to our pathways, is underway and will be published here, preliminary analysis is available for Indonesia’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution, submitted in October 2025.

Unconditional 2030 target in 2022 NDC:

As expressed by the country:

  • 31.89% emissions reductions below business-as-usual baseline year 2010 by 2030

When excluding LULUCF, Indonesia’s unconditional target translates to:

  • 1737 MtCO2e, or 134% above the 2010 levels by 2030 23

Conditional 2030 target in 2022 NDC:

As expressed by the country:

  • 43.2% emissions reductions below business-as-usual baseline year 2010 by 2030

When excluding LULUCF, Indonesia’s conditional target translates to:

  • 1643 MtCO2e, or 121% above the 2010 levels by 2030

Unconditional 2030 target in 2025 NDC:

As expressed by the country:

  • “… relative to reference year of 2019 (…) 55.5% above the reference emission…”24

Conditional 2030 target in 2025 NDC:

As expressed by the country:

  • “… relative to reference year of 2019 (…) 17.5% and 30.3% above the reference year…”25

Unconditional 2035 target in 2025 NDC:

As expressed by the country:

  • “In 2035, the level of emission (…) will be 56.1% above the reference year…”26

Conditional 2035 target in 2025 NDC:

As expressed by the country:

  • “In 2035, the level of emission (…) will be 9.8% and 30.0% above the reference year respectively…”27

Long-term target

As formulated by the country: “Indonesia's Second NDC is fully aligned with the Nation's Low Emissions Development Strategies (LTS-LCCR 2050) and the Long-Term Development Planning Document (RPJPN 2025-2045). This alignment ensures that Indonesia's climate ambition to achieve Net Zero Emissions by 2060 or sooner is maintained without backsliding, while also supporting national economic goals.”28

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