What is Colombia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
Colombia’s power sector already contains a large share of renewables, with hydropower supplying 71% of power produced in 2020.1 Colombia’s updated NDC includes a target of reaching 1500 MW of installed non-hydro renewable capacity by 2022, equivalent to roughly 9% of the electricity supply.2,3
However, our analysis shows that Colombia would need to reach close to 100% renewable energy in the power generation mix by 2030 to decarbonise in line with the 1.5°C temperature limit. This indicates a need for greater ambition on the scaling up of renewable power in Colombia.
Furthermore, coal, which currently plays a minor role in the power mix, would need to be phased out of the power sector by around 2025 and gas between 2028 and 2033.
Colombia's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
The carbon intensity of Colombia’s power sector will need to be reduced from 190 gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to be fully decarbonised by 2035 at the latest. This appears to be feasible for a country already benefitting from around 70% renewable energy in its power mix.4
Some scenarios show the power sector in Colombia reaching zero CO₂ emissions by 2025. This follows a scenario relying primarily on the aggressive and exclusive scaling up of renewable power, without the use of negative emissions technologies.
Given the uncertainties associated with the efficacy and financial viability of negative emissions technologies and the continued damage resulting from climate variability under slower emissions cuts, implementing renewable power as quickly and broadly as possible in the power sector offers an opportunity to limit warming to 1.5°C.
Colombia's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Colombia to be on the order of USD 3 to 7 billion by 2030 and USD 5 to 15 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors, growing energy demand, and expansion of electricity access. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies,of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Colombia's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Colombia
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
192
|
2 to
28
|
0 to
0
|
-12 to
-4
|
2027 to
2035
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-99 to
-86%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
-106 to
-102%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
10
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
16
|
1 to
2
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
2028 to
2033
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
70
|
96 to
99
|
100 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
30
|
1 to
4
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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