What is Colombia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Colombia emitted 201 MtCO₂e in 2024, excluding LULUCF. The energy sector produces primarily CO₂ emissions and accounts for over half of Colombia’s emissions, at 52%. Within the energy sector, transport is responsible for almost a quarter of the total emissions, followed by the power sector and industry energy use, with the fossil fuel industry (emitting mostly carbon dioxide as well as methane emissions) and the buildings sector following.
Agriculture is the second largest emitting sector at 29% of total 2024 emissions (or 59 MtCO₂e), comprised nearly entirely of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. Waste accounts for 12% of total emissions (largely methane) in 2024, whereas industrial processes account for the last bit of the total emissions, mainly from minerals, chemicals, metal and other processes.
The Highest Possible Ambition scenario presents a 1.5ºC compatible path for Colombia’s decarbonisation leveraging renewables and electrification, while pushing fossil fuels out of the energy mix. However, challenges arising from fossil fuel production accounting for 35% of the country’s exports should be thoroughly discussed.1 In an act of strong political leadership, Colombia, together with the Netherlands, will host the First International Conference on the Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels, following the COP30 outcomes and discussions.2 This is a major step towards further strengthening the need for an orderly fossil fuel phase out roadmap to reduce emissions to keep 1.5ºC on sight and the alternative sources of income that should be explored.
Colombia's 2024 GHG emissions
excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions. Individual sector rounding may lead to small inconsistencies in total sum.
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
Data References
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Energy
Except for the power sector and hydropower’s historical dominance, Colombia's energy system was structurally centred around fossil fuels (coal, gas, oil) as reflected in the primary energy mix with their share reaching 78% in 2023 but is now evolving to meet rapidly growing demand and the need to reduce emissions. Under the HPA scenario, all end-use sectors accelerate their decarbonization through electrification and an accelerated renewables deployment, pushing fossil fuels out by mid-century through a rapid transformation.
The transport sector accounted for 42% of Colombia’s total final energy consumption in 2023 making it a significant source of consumption and emissions, followed by residential buildings and industry at 24% and 20% respectively. At the same time, oil products accounted for more than half of Colombia’s final energy consumption in 2023.3
Colombia’s energy transition is at a crossroads, with the power sector driving the transformation of all end-use sectors through renewable electrification, despite the expected energy demand increase. Hydropower remains currently the dominant source of electricity production, but climate change and droughts are expected to impact this renewable source and create increased volatility. Non-hydro renewables (mostly solar) are increasingly being deployed due to falling costs and enhanced market mechanisms. Colombia aims to install 6 GW of renewables capacity by the end of 2026, with approximately 4 GW (February 2026) either in operation or in testing. 4 This marks an important shift towards cheaper renewables and positions solar energy as a key pillar of the power system, supporting the electrification and decarbonization of all end-use sectors.
Colombia’s energy transition can become a success story should the necessary enabling conditions are met, such as adequate infrastructure in grids, storage and flexibility, increased levels of electrification across the energy system powered by renewables as well as policy continuity and stability.