What is Czech Republic's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
1.5°C compatible pathways
Czechia currently has a 2030 emissions target of a 30% reduction below 2005 levels (excl. LULUCF), which, under current policies, it is projected to narrowly miss.1 However, Czechia’s 2030 target is not compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, which would require emissions reductions of 53-64% below 2005 levels.
Czechia is the worst performing country in the EU regarding the planned deployment of renewables by 2030. Fewer renewable energy sources are planned to be built in this decade than the previous one, meaning that Czechia would have the lowest share of renewable energy in the entire EU.2 Considering that energy supply is responsible for 69% of Czech emissions, such low ambition means Czechia is one of the bloc’s major climate laggards.
Czech Republic's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Long term pathway
Czechia has set a target of reducing total GHGs emissions by at least 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. In absolute terms, this corresponds to a maximum emissions level of 39 MtCO₂e/yr.3 1.5°C compatible pathways show that Czechia’s GHGs emissions in 2050 should be reduced to 0-19 MtCO₂e/yr or by around 87-100% below 2005 levels, excluding LULUCF.
Remaining GHGs emissions from agriculture will need to be balanced through carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches such as direct air capture, reforestation, or bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). The Czech government has shown interest in the use of hydrogen as part of its long-term strategy.4
Czechia released its Hydrogen Strategy in July 2021, indicating the government’s commitment to using hydrogen as part of its decarbonisation drive. However, it aims to produce hydrogen from fossil gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS), which still generates emissions, as well as through electrolysis using renewables and nuclear power.5 The strategy claims that producing sufficient hydrogen to meet future local demand can only be achieved with nuclear power or from fossil gas with CCS, however no justification was given to substantiate this assertion.
Czech Republic's primary energy mix
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Energy system transformation
The carbon intensity of the Czech economy is one of the highest among all IEA countries due to the dominance of coal in the energy mix.6 Thus, a key challenge of Czechia’s energy sector in the coming decade will be the phasing out of coal. For the power sector, in conjunction with a rapid coal phase-out there needs to be a ratcheting up of the share of renewables to 49-61% by 2030 and 80-100% by 2050.
The replacement of coal with renewables will significantly reduce the emissions intensity of electricity generation and, through the electrification of end-use sectors, support the decarbonisation of other sectors. The necessary infrastructure needs to be built in the current decade to prepare for broader deployment of renewables. For instance, the transport sector currently accounts for 14% of overall emissions.7 For renewables to penetrate this sector, the Czech government could ramp up the deployment of electric vehicle charging stations and provide financial incentives to stimulate electric vehicle adoption.
Czech Republic's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Czech Republic. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2005
Reference year
|
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
149
|
124
|
61
54 to
70
|
27
16 to
38
|
14
0 to
19
|
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-59%
-64 to
-53%
|
-82%
-90 to
-74%
|
-91%
-100 to
-87%
|
|||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
126
|
101
|
55
41 to
61
|
20
5 to
32
|
1
-4 to
12
|
2055
2045 to
2067
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-56%
-68 to
-52%
|
-84%
-96 to
-75%
|
-99%
-103 to
-90%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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